Primary bond market

The FOMC will likely take the opportunity to profess its reliance on data to decide liftoff and reiterate the threshold for a rate hike remains higher than for taper.

The Illinois State Toll Highway Authority plans $600 million of borrowing next month and $500 million next year as its 15-year-old capital program remains in full speed ahead mode.

Though monetary policy has been in the forefront, at mid-month the tone changed with global inflation outlooks and federal infrastructure and social package in flux.

A lighter, $5 billion calendar, heavy on healthcare, kicks off November. Most participants agree volatility in U.S. Treasuries will be a leading factor for municipal market performance. Uncertainty in Washington also isn't helping the asset class.

Key institutional players like banks and insurance companies may have less incentive to buy tax-exempt munis if the provision becomes law.

Amid a flattening municipal yield curve and inversion of the Treasury market, new issues fared better than the secondary on Thursday as participants prepared for month end.

The lack of inclusion of the muni market's priorities in the reconciliation framework sends a strong signal they're unlikely to be included in the final legislation.

ICI reported the lowest inflows since outflows in March, while exchanged-traded funds saw an uptick.

As of now, returns for the month will very likely end in the red. The Bloomberg U.S. Municipal Index is at -0.40% for the month and +0.39% for the year.

S&P lifted its outlook to stable on Minneapolis' AAA rating and Fitch went positive on its AA-plus rating.

The $162 million tax-exempt new money deal is bolstered by two ratings upgrades and analysts say it will generate a lot of investor interest on Wednesday.

Despite a short-end U.S. Treasury rally, municipals face pressure on the one- and two-year as participants look to month-end positioning.

The fast pace of the Democratic negotiations may act in muni market's favor.

Volume falls slightly in the week of October 25 with total potential volume estimated at $7.408 billion: $6.036 billion of negotiated deals and $1.372 billion in the competitive market.

Borrowers are enjoying the strongest market in decades while investors are forced to take what they can get.

Municipal bond mutual fund inflows fell to $177 million while high-yield is back to outflows, both signaling selling may be moving the market toward another larger correction.

The Investment Company Institute reported $385 million of inflows while ETFs fell to $124 million.

Wisconsin reported healthier-than-expected fiscal 2021 results that should benefit a new money deal planned for next month.

Spreads have been widening, but secondary trading was on the light side and triple-A benchmarks were cut by only a basis point in spots even as U.S. Treasury yields once again rose on the 10- and 30-year.

Illinois passage of clean energy legislation cleared the deck for AMP Ohio's stalled refunding of Prairie State bonds, but mandates that would force the plant's eventual closure loom large.