Secondary bond market

While it's unclear how long the war in the Middle East will drag on, once President Donald Trump announces an end to the war, things could change "on a dime," as happened with the tariff-induced volatility in April 2025, said Peter Block, managing director of credit strategy at Ramirez.

"Looking at where oil was and the potential for disruption, and this being tax season and issuers having to pull deals, there's no reason why yields wouldn't have been higher," said Matt Fabian, president of Municipal Market Analytics.

Some states and local governments "went on spending sprees" with pandemic funds and "got ratings upgrades that didn't have a lot to do with fiscal management," said an investor.

With front-end rates off so much Thursday morning, "liquidity providers backed off noticeably in the morning in terms of bid with offers slow to follow," said Matt Smith, founder and CEO of Spline Data, noting it was likely a response to elevated bids wanted counts, along with rates.

Currently, it's a Goldilocks market, said Kim Olsan, senior fixed income portfolio manager at NewSquare Capital: "Just right enough for just enough people, and steady [enough] that there doesn't seem to be any [big] price pressure at the moment."

There is a lot of money out there, and investors seem comfortable putting it to work.

"A lot of the perception is the Iran situation and energy and everything else is temporary, so if municipal yields are higher, let's take advantage of it," said Pat Luby, head of municipal strategy at CreditSights.

If "we get another day of this, that will help the markets continue to trade in a better place," said Jock Wright, an underwriter at Raymond James.

"We're still seeing continued yield pressure out there from the market outlook investors have with the conflict in Iran," said Ajay Thomas, head of public finance at FHN Financial.

The March/April period is typically a softer period for the muni market, said Jeff Timlin, managing partner and head of municipal bond investing at Sage Advisory.

"There was a certain amount of resilience munis had in the last week, comfortable enough with distribution," said Kim Olsan, senior fixed income portfolio manager at NewSquare Capital Markets. "But the 10-year Treasury backing up behind 4.20%, it proved to be the catalyst for adjusted bid-sides."

This week, "look for deals to get priced to attract demand," said Pat Luby, head of municipal strategy at CreditSights, and Wilson Lees, an analyst at the firm.

Many muni participants stayed on the sidelines to start last week due to "the sudden about-face in the Treasury market and uncertainty over how long-lasting the incursion would be," Birch Creek strategists said.

"We are still not overly concerned about the effect of the geopolitical concerns on municipals — in our view, the muni market is well insulated," said Barclays strategists.

Brightline asked S&P to withdraw its rating after the latest downgrade.

Market technicals should weaken this month in line with seasonal expectations, with estimated redemption capital of $32 billion compared to estimated supply of $41 billion, said Appleton Partners strategists.

With USTs stable and the "snoozer" of economic data Wednesday morning, the muni market has settled, with muni yields little, said Jeff MacDonald, EVP and head of fixed income strategies at Fiduciary Trust International.

"Once the damage is done, it takes a little longer for it to come back," said Elaine Brennan, executive director of the public finance department at Roosevelt and Cross, of the muni market.

First thing this morning, there wasn't much action as market participants waited to see what would happen, but as the day went on, munis got progressively weaker, said Kyle Gerberding, director of trading, a portfolio manager and partner at Asset Preservation Advisors.

On the week, the muni market performed well, with most investor action happening in the longer half of the curve, said BofA strategists.