Secondary bond market

UST yields rose across the curve in response to the employment report with the two-year rising nearly 10 basis points while municipals largely ignored the moves and ratios fell as a result.

The growth of the muni market comes as issuance surges, with the first half of the year seeing $280.64 billion of supply, up 14.3% year-over-year, according to LSEG.

MFS Investment Management predicts "compelling opportunities for muni investors" in the second half of the year.

"We are entering a period during the summer months in which demand historically outweighs very limited supply, resulting in a supportive performance environment but more limited investment opportunities," said J. Robert Lind of Lind Capital Partners.

This week has the July 4th holiday, with only $2.5 billion on tap in the primary bond market, though investors have tens of billions in reinvestment cash.

Issuance for the week of June 30 is estimated at $2.495 billion, with $2.039 billion of negotiated deals and $456.3 million of competitive deals on tap, according to LSEG.

Investors added $79.6 million to municipal bond mutual funds in the week ended Wednesday, following $110 million of inflows the prior week, according to LSEG Lipper data.

As the end of the first half of a so-far tumultuous 2025 approaches, several municipal bond analysts are upbeat about the rest of the year.

"The trend of heavy issuance that began last year has continued in the first half of 2025, surpassing even our rather optimistic expectations," said Barclays strategists Mikhail Foux, Grace Cen and Francisco San Emeterio.

The selloff highlights the lack of accurate pricing and credit information across the speculative-grade muni market.