Primary bond market

The Beige Book suggests the economy is recovering, with optimism for 6-12 months ahead, while economists don't envision inflation rising enough for the Fed to take action any time soon.

Institutional pricing of New York City and competitive deals from Baltimore and Cambridge, Mass., should help give a sense of where yields are heading, while Ohio offers up GOs for a market that's been little changed for three days after a large sell-off.

The sell-off in the back half of February brought negative 1.59% returns for the month and a negative 0.96% return for the year so far. Taxables and high-yields fared slightly better.

The prominent private university will add $600 million to corporate CUSIP deal numbers that recorded a more than 200% increase last year.

The market took a much-needed breather Friday and U.S. Treasuries pared Thursday's losses to see the 10-year fall 12 basis points to 1.42% and the 30-year 17 basis points to 2.11%. Municipals were steady at 1.14% in 10 years and 1.82% in 30.

While issuance fell significantly from 2020, it was higher than January's and only the fifth time in 35 years that volume exceeded $30 billion in February.

Municipal bond mutual funds took notice of rate movements with Refinitiv Lipper reporting $37 million of inflows after 15 weeks of multi-billion inflows, the lowest since Dec. 2. High-yield funds took a big hit with $330 million of outflows.

BATA brings a refunding deal to market next week, buoyed by a financial position that stood up to the stresses of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The deal was the largest in the authority’s history, with the lowest ever interest rate for one of its sales and netting a record-breaking $112 million in interest cost savings.

Global bond yield move suggests financial markets are much more optimistic about the economy than the Fed.

High-grade deals priced and secondary trading showed bonds exchanging hands at yields higher than triple-A benchmarks in some cases, but a healthy two-way flow was evident, even if there are signals that yields have not yet hit a ceiling.

The COVID-19 pandemic didn't delay the deal but it did influence the structuring of the new money and refunding deal.

Data released Monday showed economic strength with further improvement ahead. U.S. Treasuries were off by five basis points but municipals saw aggressive eight to 10 basis point swings to higher yields across the curve.

Muni yields rose another five basis points on the 10- and 30-year, bringing the total cuts to scales to 18 and 17 basis points, respectively, from Tuesday as the asset class moved closer to UST movements after lagging that market since the start of the year.

Muni yields have climbed double-digit basis points in a week but technicals remain strong. Refinitiv Lipper reports $1.96 billion of inflows into municipal bond mutual funds.

The city, struggling amid a pandemic-induced deficit, received a negative outlook from Kroll Bond Rating Agency ahead of the deal.

The municipal secondary gave way to higher-yields and triple-A benchmarks rose two to five basis points. U.S. Treasuries pared back Tuesday's losses, even on the heels of better economic data.

With the U.S. Treasury sell off, municipal to UST ratios fell below 55% in 10-years.

The COVID-19 pandemic threw the economy into disarray, creating uncertainty in so many areas, and economists still don’t agree on the future of inflation. But they agree the Fed will need to adjust when the economy starts to improve.

While most observers expect inflation to grow as the economy heals, the latest CPI numbers suggest that it hasn't yet arrived.