Primary bond market

The 2-, 5- and 10-year UST is higher than before the pandemic began as investors factor in a rate hike as soon as March.

The largest deal of the week comes from the New York City Transitional Finance Authority with $950 million of exempts and $250 million of taxables.

The junk-rated Chicago Public Schools sold $872 million of new-money and refunding bonds into a rockier market for high-yield paper Thursday.

BofA Securities led with $62.01 billion of deals. Out of the top five, only Morgan Stanley increased its market share year-over-year.

For investors in the municipal bond market, 2021 proved to be a year of hurdles. This is likely to change, particularly for investors in the municipal bond market.

The primary led Thursday's firmer tone while Chicago schools faced 10 to 20 bp penalties compared to price talk, signifying investors are being more selective and demanding more in the new higher-yield range.

Mayor Eric Adams’s proposal to ask the state to raise the Transitional Finance Authority’s bonding authority by $19 billion is being opposed by Comptroller Brad Lander.

Supply is beginning to roll in and the primary action on Wednesday provided more direction. ICI reports $1.4 billion of inflows.

The financing will help pay for upgrades that will keep the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field through 2036.

“We are anticipating a substantial present value savings as a result of our being proactive,” said the spokeswoman for state Treasurer John Schroder.

Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell would not commit to timing for liftoff, stressing decisions would be data-based and the Fed will not allow inflation to become entrenched.

Chicago Public Schools returns to the market after resolving a union dispute that shuttered schools amid the spreading omicron COVID-19 variant.

Pressures from inflation concerns and broader rising rates weigh on munis in the second week of 2022.

Munis followed UST weaker while stocks sold off after the employment report, which offered many messages. Analysts believe the bottom line is the Fed will liftoff in March.

The Federal Reserve expects Omicron to fizzle in weeks, and while pandemic-related risks remain, the economy is strong and the Fed needs to address inflation and could liftoff as soon as March, Bullard says.

ICI reported $1.101 billion of inflows into municipal bond mutual funds for the last week of 2021. Refinitiv Lipper figures on Thursday may give a sense of investor sentiment for week one of 2022.

The U.S. Treasury selloff caught up to tax-exempts with two to three basis point cuts to scales, but munis still outperform.

Municipals triple-A benchmarks continue the trend of ignoring other markets to start 2022. The new year will likely usher in slower growth and continued inflationary pressures, analysts said.

Municipal volume is estimated at $1.13 billion for the opening week of 2022. Persistently strong net supply challenges will bias credit spreads tighter, credit discipline weaker in the next few years, analysts say.

2022 volume projections are clouded by many uncertainties. What is not murky is that demand for municipals is unlikely to fade.