Secondary bond market

The Investment Company Institute reported investors pulled another $290 million out of municipal bond mutual funds in the week ending May 10.

The market is seeing a supportive environment for munis, said Nisha Patel, managing director of SMA Portfolio Management at Parametric.

"With rates volatility seemingly subsiding in the past few weeks, we could start to see outflows decrease and demand flow back into munis," according to AmeriVet Securities' Jason Wong.

Investors will be greeted Monday with a new-issue calendar estimated at $6.018 billion with a few bellwether, triple-A names coming from Loudoun County, Virginia, Frederick County, Maryland, and Columbia University with sizable deals.

Outflows were seen again from municipal bond mutual funds, though they lessened this week as Refinitiv Lipper reported $101.664 million was pulled as of Wednesday.  

The CPI numbers coming in pretty much as expected "was a relief" to the markets, with the bond market rallying after the release, said Luke Bartholomew, senior economist at abrdn.

Despite the attraction for new issues, sources said there is still uncertainty overall in the municipal market stemming from the regional banking crisis.

Now that there is more "clarity from the Fed on the path of interest rates, both investors and issuers may start to move off the sidelines," said Daniel Close, head of municipals at Nuveen.

Investors will be greeted Monday with a new-issue calendar estimated at $7.588 billion.

The secondary was quiet and the sole deal of size came from a $400 million-plus competitive water and sewer loan from Portland, Oregon. The recent rise in yields makes for more compelling levels.

"The market is expecting a 25 basis point rise in the Fed funds rate, but more importantly, investors are waiting for the comments for a better idea of what to expect going forward," said SWBC Investment Company's Roberto Roffo.

In a supply-challenged market, foreign investors can play a role in buying taxable munis. 16Rock Asset Management's James Pruskowski discusses a 2023 reset in the muni market. Lynne Funk hosts (29 minutes)

Municipals were in the red to close out April, down 0.2%, per the Bloomberg Municipal Index, but are in the black 2.5% year-to-date.

JPMorgan's move to acquire First Republic and its muni portfolio eases the risk of nearly $20 billion of munis flooding the market.

"Investors' jitters in the lead up to next week's Fed meeting resulted in some large macro market moves and a rise in volatility," noted BofA Securities strategists in a weekly report.

Outflows from municipal bond mutual funds receded as Refinitiv Lipper reported $92.055 million was pulled from them as of Wednesday after $2.876 billion of outflows the week prior. 

The Investment Company Institute reported investors pulled $377 million from to mutual funds in the week ending April 12, after $229 million of inflows the previous week.

One underwriter called it a "violent inversion," given that the short end of the municipal and Treasury yield curves were so dislocated.

The "weakness in the secondary market will carry over into this week, which may lead to higher yields and wider spreads in the primary market," said CreditSights strategists Pat Luby and Sam Berzok.

Investors will be greeted Monday with a new-issue calendar estimated at $7.208 billion, led by $1.3 billion of GOs from bellwether Washington.