Secondary bond market

Even though yields have moved to higher ground, some participants say that even cheaper levels are needed to bring about more retail conviction. Muni-to-UST ratios are still rich.

The Investment Company Institute reported investors added $229 million to mutual funds in the week ending April 12, after $83 million of outflows the previous week.

Municipal outperformance to UST ended Tuesday as triple-A yields rose 12 to 20 basis points as several new issues began pricing.

Muni yields were cut four to eight basis points, depending on the scale, while UST yields rose seven to nine basis points. Muni outperformance and rich ratios continue.

For long-term muni bonds, BofA strategists noted that macro market and supply/demand conditions "are dominating the picture, pushing the high-grade muni market to a relatively rich valuation versus Treasuries."

For the week ending Wednesday, outflows intensified as Refinitiv Lipper reported $255.794 million was pulled from municipal bond mutual funds after $91.713 million of outflows the week prior. High-yield saw inflows.

Strong demand in the primary market is leading to the oversubscription of many new issues. Municipals and USTs were better again as macroeconomic concerns pressure equities.

The second half of 2023 may see a slowdown, perhaps even a mild recession, said Daniel Close, the newly named head of municipals at Nuveen.

Municipals are coming off a rally and yields were better in spots Monday, but ratios are a cause for pause.

For the week ending Wednesday, outflows lessened as Refinitiv Lipper reported $91.713 million was pulled from municipal bond mutual funds after $194.097 million of outflows the week prior.

Outflows continued with the Investment Company Institute reporting investors pulled $128 million from mutual funds in the week ending March 29, after $693 million of outflows the previous week.

Outside of economic data, "a light forward calendar is driving strong demand in the secondary market and with new issues, with some deals being significantly oversubscribed," SWBC's Roberto Roffo said.

For four consecutive weeks, triple-A yields have fallen, and munis returned over 2.2% for the month, "a great reversal from February where munis returned a loss of 2.26%," said AmeriVet Securities' Jason Wong.

"Folks are aware of possible pressure that could weigh on the market, but attitudes are still generally more constructive than negative at this time," says Tom Kozlik of HilltopSecurities. 

Outflows continued as Refinitiv Lipper reported $194.097 million was pulled from municipal bond mutual funds in the week that ended Wednesday after $427.082 million of outflows the week prior.

Outflows continued, with the Investment Company Institute reporting investors pulled $693 million from mutual funds in the week ending March 22, after $684 million of outflows the previous week.

Munis are directionally trading with USTs but underperforming in days where USTs rally and outperforming in days where USTs sell-off, said Greg Gizzi, head of U.S. fixed income and head of municipal bonds at Macquarie Asset Management.

Munis held "their firmer tone as Treasuries continued to rally once more this past week," said Jason Wong, vice president of municipals at AmeriVet Securities.

Yields on top-rated municipal bonds fell as much as nine basis points on Friday as bank contagion fears resurfaced and investors looked to safe-haven securities. The primary calendar is rebounding, with volume rising to an estimated $5.4 billion in the week ahead.

Outflows continued as Refinitiv Lipper reported $427.082 million was pulled from municipal bond mutual funds in the week that ended Wednesday after $461.123 million of outflows the week prior.