FOMC

The Federal Reserve is expected to pause at its September meeting. Jeff Timlin, a managing partner at Sage Advisory, will join us on Sept. 21 to provide analysis of the meeting.

Daly said the neutral interest rate — also known as R-star — may be higher now than it was before the pandemic

Despite recent improvements, "inflation remains well above the FOMC's 2% target. Domestic spending has continued at a strong pace, and the labor market remains tight," Bowman said Wednesday.

"If we continue to see a cooling labor market and inflation heading back to our target, we can hold interest rates steady and let the effects of policy continue to work," Daly said.

September's total volume ticked up 1.2% to $27.585 billion in 531 issues from $27.251 billion in 592 issues a year earlier. However, the month's total is lower than the $30.652 billion 10-year average, according to Refinitiv data.

As was expected, the FOMC held rates in a range between 5.25% and 5.50%, but the dot plot in the Summary of Economic Projections showed 12 of 19 members expect another 25-basis-point rate hike this year.

Fund flows "should be moving along a more positive trajectory, but they have yet to do so with munis unable to break free of the Treasury market's tight grip," Oppenheimer's Jeff Lipton said.

With a light new-issue calendar ahead of the FOMC meeting, "secondary flows may benefit from greater attention," said Kim Olsan, senior vice president at FHN Financial.

With the Federal Open Market Committee expected to skip an interest rate hike, all eyes turn to the Summary of Economic Projections and Chair Powell's remarks.

"Although inflation has moved down from its peak — a welcome development — it remains too high," Powell said in the text of a speech Friday at the U.S. central bank's annual conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin said the greater-than-expected easing in inflation in June may be an indication that the U.S. economy can have a "soft landing," returning to price stability without a damaging recession.

After July's hike, analysts are mixed on whether the Federal Open Market Committee is done raising rates.

"I haven't made up my mind for what should happen in September," Goolsbee said.

Municipal bond mutual fund saw inflows with Refinitiv Lipper on Thursday reporting investors added $552.219 million to funds for the week ending Wednesday following $1.040 billion of outflows the previous week.

The Investment Company Institute reported investors added $453 million to municipal bond mutual funds in the week ending July 19, after $111 million of inflows the previous week.

Eric Merlis, managing director and co-head of global markets at Citizens Bank, talks with Chip Barnett about the economy and financial markets and what the Federal Reserve might do. He also discusses possible near- and long-term economic scenarios. (15 minutes)

Analysts look at whether the FOMC will bring the last rate hike in the cycle, whether recession is coming, and whether the Fed is making a policy mistake.

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard, who called for aggressive interest-rate hikes to fight the recent inflation surge, resigned after 15 years in the position to become dean of a university business school.

"The bond market finally got the relief from inflation it was hoping for," said Bryce Doty, senior vice president and senior portfolio manager at Sit Investment Associates. 

The Federal Reserve needs to raise interest rates a bit further to rein in an inflation rate that's too high, monetary expert John Taylor said.