Inflation

Federal Reserve Gov. Christopher Waller said Friday that the length of time the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked will be a key factor in the longer-term inflation outlook — and, by extension, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path.

Federal Reserve Gov. Stephen Miran Thursday said that the Iran war and tariffs will not have long-term impacts on inflation, but did say he is reconsidering his rate cut outlook for the year.

With the "fragile" ceasefire in the United States-Iran conflict underway, the risk of higher rates beyond those from March has largely been removed, said BofA strategists.

Financial markets, including the muni market, priced in too much of a "sure thing, done deal" Wednesday morning, said Kyle Gerberding, director of trading, a portfolio manager and partner at Asset Preservation Advisors.

Wednesday's market rally is tied to President Donald Trump's announcement of the temporary ceasefire, which came about Tuesday night, an hour and a half before the president's 8 p.m. deadline, market participants said.

"You would think global instability leads to flight for quality, but you also have the inflationary pressures that come with higher oil prices. I would say the inflationary pressures have been winning, and that's why you're seeing Treasury and muni rates move higher," said Keith Richard, head of public finance at Siebert Williams Shank.

The weakness in fixed-income markets comes after stocks and bonds saw strength Monday following President Donald Trump's announcement of a five-day pause on strikes on Iranian power plants amid talks between the two countries.

"Unsurprisingly, the market is taking these numbers in stride, with the bond market only slightly higher after a large rally over the last couple of days due to the equity market sell-off," said John Kerschner, global head of securitized products and portfolio manager at Janus Henderson Investors.

"The bond market breathed a sigh of relief this morning as the CPI inflation numbers came in a tad weaker than expected," said John Kerschner, global head of securitised products and portfolio manager at Janus Henderson Investors.

Muni yields were bumped a basis point, while UST yields fell two to four basis points.

"Investors were not disappointed," said John Kerschner, global head of securitized products and portfolio manager at Janus Henderson. "Inflation came in softer than expected, leading to a tepid bond market rally" and ensuring a rate cut at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said Friday that the economic outlook is uncertain and that he was adopting a cautious approach to gauging whether slowing growth and a softening labor market outweigh inflation pressures from tariffs.

Investors added $2.183 billion to municipal bond mutual funds in the week ended Wednesday, following $623.3 million of inflows the prior week, according to LSEG Lipper data.

Muni yields were bumped two to 12 basis points, depending on the scale, with the largest gains out long, and UST yields fell six to nine basis points, pushing the two-year UST to its lowest levels in over two years.

The rally stemmed from the weak nonfarm payrolls report and revisions brought down the three-month average to 29,000 jobs per month, further solidifying the chance of a rate cut in September, said Chris Brigati, managing director and CIO at SWBC.

The latest inflation report — the producer price index — threw a monkey wrench into expectations for a big rate cut next month, according to some economists, may put into question any easing in September.

"The combination of stronger core and softer headline readings has left some traders struggling for direction," said Daniela Sabin Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com. "There is a reason to be both bullish and bearish depending on which CPI reading you wish to focus on."

As always, economists had disparate interpretations of the consumer price index, with none expecting a July rate cut. And tariff questions remain unanswered.

A "lighter-than-anticipated CPI report" led to UST firmness, as it "quelled fears about tariff-related inflation and boosted enthusiasm that the Fed will cut rates in the next two or three meetings," said José Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers.

Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said in a speech Wednesday that elevated tariffs will likely lead to inflation, but time will tell how impactful that spike in prices might be.