Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

The impact of COVID-19 is still ripping through the economy as the Institute for Supply Management-New York index fell to a new low of 4.3 in April and factory orders slumped 10.3% in March.

Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell stuck to his message in questioning before members of the House Financial Services Committee: the economy is doing well and the Fed will stay on the sidelines unless there is a “material change” to its forecast.

The early dot plots were characterized by overly optimistic projections for gross domestic product, which were later revised down, while the projections made after 2017 have been somewhat pessimistic, but more accurate, according to research by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

Three Federal Reserve Bank presidents said they would cautiously consider supporting a rate cut.

The U.S. economy doesn’t appear to be headed toward a recession, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly said.

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey’s general business conditions index turned positive in July.

Consumers see inflation rising 2.7% in the next three years and expect the Fed to cut rates, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s June Survey of Consumer Expectations.

The U.S. and China are again attempting to work out trade differences, and manufacturing numbers show somewhat weaker expansion. Will this be enough to spur the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates later this month?

If data remain mixed before the next FOMC meeting, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary C. Daly said a rate cut would be “something to think about.”

Despite “solid” growth in gross domestic product in the past year, it will be difficult for GDP to rise more than 1.5% to 1.75% on a longer run basis.

The St. Louis Fed's James Bullard and the San Francisco Fed's Mary Daly said economic conditions may justify lower interest rates.

During the Great Recession, interest rates hit zero lower bound, which caused the Fed to make unprecedented moves, or quantitative easing, to spur the economy.

The debate over the success of quantitative easing continues, even as the threat of recession slips.

Members of the Federal Open Market Committee appear to have raised their inflation target from about 1.5% in 2000 to 2% after the Great Recession.

Disruptions between monetary policy and the economy help explain the “inflation puzzle we’re facing,” according to Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly.

Climate change will cause growing losses to infrastructure and property and slow economic growth, making it “relevant” to Federal Reserve policymakers.

With inflation expectations eclipsing economic slack in driving inflation, policymakers will need to keep expectations in line to avoid “large swings in inflation,” according to researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

A negative Federal Reserve monetary policy rate could have helped turn the economy around faster during the Great Recession, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco researcher.

Extremely tight labor market conditions don’t necessarily mean much higher wage growth, according to Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco researchers.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and New York Fed President John Williams were among policy makers who in 2013 urged against referring to a government shutdown in the central bank’s post-meeting statement.