Oct. Chicago Fed Nat’l Activity Index gains on employment strength

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The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for October rose to 0.24 from a downwardly revised 0.14 in September, while the three-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3) inched up to 0.31 from an upwardly revised 0.30, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago reported Monday.

The CFNAI for September was originally reported as 0.17, while the CFNAI-MA3 was 0.21 in the first read.

In October 2017, the index was 0.84, while the CFNAI-MA3 was 0.31.

The CFNAI diffusion index, also a three-month moving average, grew to 0.32 from an upwardly revised 0.24, first reported as 0.18. A year ago, the diffusion index was 0.18.

The production indicators contributed 0.06 to CFNAI in the month (compared to an addition of 0.09 in the previous month), while employment-related indicators contributed 0.19 to the index in the month, after a 0.05 contribution in September, the Fed said.

Personal consumption and housing-related data subtracted 0.05 in the month, after taking 0.04 off the index in the prior month, while sales, orders and inventories added 0.04 in the month after a 0.04 contribution the month before.

The index is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity. A zero value for the index indicates that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth; negative values are associated with below-trend growth while positive values indicate above-trend growth.

The index was constructed using data available by Nov. 20, with data for 50 of the 85 indicators having been published by then. The Fed said it used estimates for the missing data.

Overall, 50 of the 85 indicators made positive contributions to the index in the month and 35 made negative contributions. While 51 indicators were better than the previous month, 17 of these still made negative contributions to the index. Also, 33 deteriorated from September to October and one was unchanged.

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Economic indicators Manufacturing industry Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
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