Fed survey: Inflation expectations continue trending up

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Consumers’ inflation expectations grew, but respondents’ optimism about income held, according to the April Survey of Consumer Expectations, released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on Monday.

Median inflation expectations grew to 3.0% from 2.8% for a one-year period and to 3.0% from 2.9% for a three-year horizon.

“Both measures have been trending upwards since August of last year,” according to a release. “The last time both measures reached this level was during the temporary uptick in inflation expectations in early 2017. While this month’s increase in short-term inflation expectations was broad-based across income groups, the increase in medium-term inflation expectations was driven by respondents with incomes at $50,000 or higher.”

Turning to labor, the expected earnings growth for one-year inched up to 2.7% from 2.6%. The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months slid to 13.7% from 13.9%, while the mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily in the next 12 months gained to 20.5% from 19.3%.

The probability of finding a job, if one lost his/her current job, fell to 57.1% from 57.6%.

Median one-year ahead home prices are expected to grow 3.7%, up from 3.5% last month, the Fed said, above its 12-month average of 3.3%.

Median household spending expectations increased to 3.3% from 3.1%. Income growth expectations held at 2.9%.

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Economic indicators Inflation Federal Reserve Bank of New York