The Highway Trust Fund, already on track to run out of money by 2028, would see its deficit increase by nearly $150 billion under the House-crafted surface transportation bill on the table, according to a Congressional Budget Office
Proposed registration fees for electric and hybrid vehicles, which would mark the first dedicated revenue source into the trust fund in decades, would net only around $12 billion over a 10-year period, the CBO said.
The $580 billion, five-year BUILD America 250 Act would replace the current law — 2021's Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act — which expires Sept. 30.
The House Transportation and Infrastructure committee
The Senate has not yet released its reauthorization proposal or announced a timeline for committee consideration
The bill allocates roughly $580 billion over fiscal years 2027-2031, with $474.4 billion provided as Highway Trust Fund contract authority. The remaining $106 billion of the bill's funding would be subject to annual appropriations, which would likely have to come from the general fund.
The Highway Trust Fund is funded with federal gas and diesel taxes, which have not been raised since 1993. For nearly two decades it has run a structural deficit, relying on general fund subsidies to the tune of $272 billion since 2008,
Under the BUILD 250 Act, cumulative shortfalls at the end of 2031 would be $99.5 billion for the highway account and $48.2 billion for the transit account, based on historical spending rates, the CBO said in its analysis.
A federal EV fee would bring in $17 billion through 2036, which would be collected by the states, but would likely dampen the states' collections of income and payroll taxes, the CBO said. After that offset is applied, the net revenue increase would be roughly $12 billion over the 10-year period, the office said.
During the Build Act's five-year period, the registration fee would bring in under $3 billion total. That would mean surface transportation spending would exceed dedicated revenue and widen the trust fund shortfall by $40 billion in fiscal 2031 compared to the previous year, the CBO said.
If a fix is not found, transportation funding will increasingly face competition from other federal priorities, the Eno Center for Transportation warned in a
"It is possible that general fund transfers and supplements will work for yet another cycle and the highway and transit programs will continue to glide forward for another five- or six-year reauthorization period," Eno said.
"However, an expiration date for that reauthorization would land in the mid-2030s, which will almost certainly ensure that discussions on HTF solvency become wrapped up in the insolvency crisis for the Social Security trust funds projected for 2032 and the Medicare Part A insolvency point in 2036," Eno said. "Amid this broader budgetary crisis, it is dubious that transportation programs could continue to enjoy the advantages of contract authority spending when dedicated revenues cover just half of the actual spending."
