Jessica Lerner

Minutes from the September Federal Open Market Committee meeting were "not much of a market mover" Wednesday, said Scott Anderson, chief U.S. economist and managing director at BMO Economics.

However, "a long-lasting bond market rally seems unlikely given major structural shifts of higher bond supply and on uncertainty with demand," said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA.

The firm will continue to do business in the competitive market.

RBC Capital Markets and Caine Mitter & Associates moved into the top 10, while CSG Advisors and Kaufman Hall & Associates were bumped to the top 15.

BofA Securities remained in the top spot despite accounting for less par and a smaller market share than in 2022.

California headlined the top 10 issuers in the first three quarters of 2023.

While the market broadly is still in the early stages of using artificial intelligence, more firms are starting to implement it, panelists said at MuniTech NYC, an event hosted by Munichain and Spline Data that brought together a gathering of technology-focused market participants.

All eyes will be on Friday's report, though "it seems most leading indicators suggest job growth will remain healthy, which should keep the bond market selloff going strong," said OANDA's Edward Moya.

Municipal yields fell up to three basis points, depending on the scale, but underperform a better UST market.

UST rates are driving all things in the muni market, said Jon Mondillo, head of North American Fixed Income at abrdn.

This comes as the firm shores up its presence in Texas.

There will be "choppiness in the municipal bond market through the end of the year," said Anders S. Persson, Nuveen's chief investment officer for Global Fixed Income, and Daniel J. Close, Nuveen's head of municipals.

The Bloomberg Municipal Index and High-Yield Index lost 3.3% and 3.9%, respectively, in September.

September's total volume ticked up 1.2% to $27.585 billion in 531 issues from $27.251 billion in 592 issues a year earlier. However, the month's total is lower than the $30.652 billion 10-year average, according to Refinitiv data.

The last time muni mutual funds saw outflows top $1 billion was the week ending May 31 when they were $1.345 billion.

"The market has taken to heart the [Federal Open Market Committee] actions from last week," said Jeff Lipton, managing director of credit research at Oppenheimer Inc.

Yields have "risen substantially over the last week as the market seeks to find at least a minor level of balance or equilibrium," said Tom Kozlik, managing director and head of public policy and municipal strategy at HilltopSecurities.

Data for the second quarter show the face amount of munis outstanding rose 0.4% quarter-over-quarter, or $15.5 billion, to $4.043 trillion.

The Texas Water Development Board leads the new-issue calendar with $1 billion of revenue bonds.

The general bias toward muni rates is that they would be a bit higher with technicals "being a little less supportive than they were in August, plus what we heard with from the Fed 'higher for longer,' and potentially another hike," said Jeff MacDonald, head of Fixed Income Strategies at Fiduciary Trust International.