Jessica Lerner

The top bond counsel firms combined for a total of $265.112 billion in 5,327 transactions during the first three quarters of 2023, down from the $291.768 billion in 6,400 deals over the same period in 2022.

An elevated new-issue market is on the horizon with $14.87 billion, per The Bond Buyer's 30-day visible supply.

The new-issue muni calendar is estimated at $8.522 billion next week with $6.075 billion of negotiated deals on tap and $2.446 billion on the competitive calendar, according to Ipreo and The Bond Buyer.

LSEG Lipper data Thursday showed $297 million of outflows from municipal bond mutual funds for the week ending Wednesday after $780.1 million of outflows the week prior.

Municipal mutual fund losses continued last week as the Investment Company Institute reporting investors pulled $2.645 billion from the funds in the week ending Oct. 11. ETFs see more inflows, though.

Munis are now following along with broader Treasury market weakness, and "at the same time are also attempting to manage some of the healthiest issuance that we've seen this year," said Morgan Stanley's Matthew Gastall.

The top two municipal bond insurers wrapped $22.814 billion in the first three quarters of 2023, a slight dip of 0.5% from the $22.929 billion of deals done over the same period in 2022, according to Refinitiv data.

"The combination of higher yields and this week's heavier new-issue calendar will attract attention from income-focused individual investors as well as from institutional investors who are underweight munis," said CreditSights strategists Pat Luby and Sam Berzok.

As valuations got richer after muni outperformance this week, Barclays strategists expect munis to be "truly tested in the next several weeks, with supply picking up."

A higher inflation figure sent UST yields higher, complicating Central Bank policymaking and reversing a flight-to-safety bid amid ongoing geopolitical turmoil in Israel.

Minutes from the September Federal Open Market Committee meeting were "not much of a market mover" Wednesday, said Scott Anderson, chief U.S. economist and managing director at BMO Economics.

However, "a long-lasting bond market rally seems unlikely given major structural shifts of higher bond supply and on uncertainty with demand," said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA.

The firm will continue to do business in the competitive market.

RBC Capital Markets and Caine Mitter & Associates moved into the top 10, while CSG Advisors and Kaufman Hall & Associates were bumped to the top 15.

BofA Securities remained in the top spot despite accounting for less par and a smaller market share than in 2022.

California headlined the top 10 issuers in the first three quarters of 2023.

While the market broadly is still in the early stages of using artificial intelligence, more firms are starting to implement it, panelists said at MuniTech NYC, an event hosted by Munichain and Spline Data that brought together a gathering of technology-focused market participants.

All eyes will be on Friday's report, though "it seems most leading indicators suggest job growth will remain healthy, which should keep the bond market selloff going strong," said OANDA's Edward Moya.

Municipal yields fell up to three basis points, depending on the scale, but underperform a better UST market.

UST rates are driving all things in the muni market, said Jon Mondillo, head of North American Fixed Income at abrdn.