Securitization

Strong demand in the primary market is leading to the oversubscription of many new issues. Municipals and USTs were better again as macroeconomic concerns pressure equities.

The second half of 2023 may see a slowdown, perhaps even a mild recession, said Daniel Close, the newly named head of municipals at Nuveen.

Municipals are coming off a rally and yields were better in spots Monday, but ratios are a cause for pause.

For the week ending Wednesday, outflows lessened as Refinitiv Lipper reported $91.713 million was pulled from municipal bond mutual funds after $194.097 million of outflows the week prior.

Outflows continued with the Investment Company Institute reporting investors pulled $128 million from mutual funds in the week ending March 29, after $693 million of outflows the previous week.

Outside of economic data, "a light forward calendar is driving strong demand in the secondary market and with new issues, with some deals being significantly oversubscribed," SWBC's Roberto Roffo said.

For four consecutive weeks, triple-A yields have fallen, and munis returned over 2.2% for the month, "a great reversal from February where munis returned a loss of 2.26%," said AmeriVet Securities' Jason Wong.

"Folks are aware of possible pressure that could weigh on the market, but attitudes are still generally more constructive than negative at this time," says Tom Kozlik of HilltopSecurities. 

Outflows continued as Refinitiv Lipper reported $194.097 million was pulled from municipal bond mutual funds in the week that ended Wednesday after $427.082 million of outflows the week prior.

Outflows continued, with the Investment Company Institute reporting investors pulled $693 million from mutual funds in the week ending March 22, after $684 million of outflows the previous week.

Munis are directionally trading with USTs but underperforming in days where USTs rally and outperforming in days where USTs sell-off, said Greg Gizzi, head of U.S. fixed income and head of municipal bonds at Macquarie Asset Management.

Munis held "their firmer tone as Treasuries continued to rally once more this past week," said Jason Wong, vice president of municipals at AmeriVet Securities.

Yields on top-rated municipal bonds fell as much as nine basis points on Friday as bank contagion fears resurfaced and investors looked to safe-haven securities. The primary calendar is rebounding, with volume rising to an estimated $5.4 billion in the week ahead.

The state House Appropriations Committee dropped $3.86 billion from a supplemental spending bill, but its chair said the money is "still in play."

Outflows continued as Refinitiv Lipper reported $427.082 million was pulled from municipal bond mutual funds in the week that ended Wednesday after $461.123 million of outflows the week prior.

"In short, it appears that the end of the current tightening cycle is coming into view," said Wells Fargo Securities Chief Economist Jay Bryson.

After a tumultuous week, expect another ahead, said Matt Fabian, a partner at Municipal Market Analytics.

The banking sector crisis caused a flight-to-quality bid in USTs last week.

Investors will be greeted Monday with a new-issue calendar estimated at $4.064 billion.

Outflows continued as Refinitiv Lipper reported $461.123 million was pulled from municipal bond mutual funds in the week that ended Wednesday after $307.815 million of outflows the week prior.