Securitization

Prices for some bonds issued for Florida's express train have fallen sharply since Friday.

"The muni market seemed to ignore Treasuries [last] week, marching to its own beat," said Birch Creek strategists.

New York issuers lead a $9 billion slate.

The market has seen some "weirdness" in the muni curve, said Craig Brandon, co-head of muni investments at Morgan Stanley Investment Management.

"Municipal outperformance against taxable sectors has moved short-term ratios on or through their 252-day moving averages, while intermediate and long maturities are holding at or above average ranges," said Kim Olsan, senior fixed income portfolio manager at NewSquare Capital.

"Market volatility is likely to pick up, but the latest development does not constitute an escalation in the trade war," according to UBS strategists.

Markets are "tilting to a risk-off posture as participants brace for the chance of Trump tariff-sparked turbulence in the coming hours and days," said José Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers.

UST yields rose across the curve in response to the employment report with the two-year rising nearly 10 basis points while municipals largely ignored the moves and ratios fell as a result.

The growth of the muni market comes as issuance surges, with the first half of the year seeing $280.64 billion of supply, up 14.3% year-over-year, according to LSEG.

MFS Investment Management predicts "compelling opportunities for muni investors" in the second half of the year.

"We are entering a period during the summer months in which demand historically outweighs very limited supply, resulting in a supportive performance environment but more limited investment opportunities," said J. Robert Lind of Lind Capital Partners.

This week has the July 4th holiday, with only $2.5 billion on tap in the primary bond market, though investors have tens of billions in reinvestment cash.

Issuance for the week of June 30 is estimated at $2.495 billion, with $2.039 billion of negotiated deals and $456.3 million of competitive deals on tap, according to LSEG.

Investors added $79.6 million to municipal bond mutual funds in the week ended Wednesday, following $110 million of inflows the prior week, according to LSEG Lipper data.

As the end of the first half of a so-far tumultuous 2025 approaches, several municipal bond analysts are upbeat about the rest of the year.

"The trend of heavy issuance that began last year has continued in the first half of 2025, surpassing even our rather optimistic expectations," said Barclays strategists Mikhail Foux, Grace Cen and Francisco San Emeterio.

The selloff highlights the lack of accurate pricing and credit information across the speculative-grade muni market.

So far, the financial market reaction has been limited, said Paul Christopher, head of global investment strategy at Wells Fargo Investment Institute.

"The market itself should want to look at this because no one wants to give the perception of impropriety," said an investor of Stefanik's allegation that Harvard withheld material information regarding its ongoing conflict with the Trump administration.

With one full week of June left and the end of the second quarter approaching, the week was "a sort of Groundhog Day for municipal yields," said Kim Olsan, senior fixed income portfolio manager at NewSquare Capital.