Secondary bond market

Many investors are waiting to see if the pattern of falling yields continues, according to Chris Brigati, managing director and CIO at SWBC.

This strength comes after another "challenging week" for the muni market, which continued to deal with ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty and somewhat heavy supply, said Daryl Clements, a muni portfolio manager at AllianceBernstein.

Ending a challenging week with ongoing geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices, muni yields were cut one to four basis points, depending on the scale.

Investors pulled $600 million from municipal bond mutual funds in the week ended Wednesday, according to LSEG.

"Rates, not fundamentals, continue to drive benchmark yields higher, leaving munis on track for their fourth-worst monthly performance in 15 years," said James Pruskowski, managing director at Hennion & Walsh.

"You would think global instability leads to flight for quality, but you also have the inflationary pressures that come with higher oil prices. I would say the inflationary pressures have been winning, and that's why you're seeing Treasury and muni rates move higher," said Keith Richard, head of public finance at Siebert Williams Shank.

"We are in interesting times as the market must now balance these robust technicals against a backdrop of geopolitical tension in the Middle East and the nomination of Kevin Warsh, whose hawkish reputation is already being weighed by participants," said Jason Wong, vice president of municipals at AmeriVet Securities.

While it's unclear how long the war in the Middle East will drag on, once President Donald Trump announces an end to the war, things could change "on a dime," as happened with the tariff-induced volatility in April 2025, said Peter Block, managing director of credit strategy at Ramirez.

"Looking at where oil was and the potential for disruption, and this being tax season and issuers having to pull deals, there's no reason why yields wouldn't have been higher," said Matt Fabian, president of Municipal Market Analytics.

Some states and local governments "went on spending sprees" with pandemic funds and "got ratings upgrades that didn't have a lot to do with fiscal management," said an investor.

With front-end rates off so much Thursday morning, "liquidity providers backed off noticeably in the morning in terms of bid with offers slow to follow," said Matt Smith, founder and CEO of Spline Data, noting it was likely a response to elevated bids wanted counts, along with rates.

Currently, it's a Goldilocks market, said Kim Olsan, senior fixed income portfolio manager at NewSquare Capital: "Just right enough for just enough people, and steady [enough] that there doesn't seem to be any [big] price pressure at the moment."

There is a lot of money out there, and investors seem comfortable putting it to work.

"A lot of the perception is the Iran situation and energy and everything else is temporary, so if municipal yields are higher, let's take advantage of it," said Pat Luby, head of municipal strategy at CreditSights.

If "we get another day of this, that will help the markets continue to trade in a better place," said Jock Wright, an underwriter at Raymond James.

"We're still seeing continued yield pressure out there from the market outlook investors have with the conflict in Iran," said Ajay Thomas, head of public finance at FHN Financial.

The March/April period is typically a softer period for the muni market, said Jeff Timlin, managing partner and head of municipal bond investing at Sage Advisory.

"There was a certain amount of resilience munis had in the last week, comfortable enough with distribution," said Kim Olsan, senior fixed income portfolio manager at NewSquare Capital Markets. "But the 10-year Treasury backing up behind 4.20%, it proved to be the catalyst for adjusted bid-sides."

This week, "look for deals to get priced to attract demand," said Pat Luby, head of municipal strategy at CreditSights, and Wilson Lees, an analyst at the firm.

Many muni participants stayed on the sidelines to start last week due to "the sudden about-face in the Treasury market and uncertainty over how long-lasting the incursion would be," Birch Creek strategists said.