Municipals were relatively steady throughout most of the curve, while U.S. Treasuries were little changed and equities sold off.
The two-year muni-UST ratio Monday was at 68%, the five-year at 65%, the 10-year at 67% and the 30-year at 88%, according to Municipal Market Data's 3 p.m. EDT read. ICE Data Services had the two-year at 68%, the five-year at 64%, the 10-year at 67% and the 30-year at 87% at a 4 p.m. read.
"Despite weaker interest rates, the muni market continued to trade with a firm tone as the … AAA MMD curve ignored the economic headlines and was kept unchanged every day [last week]," said Birch Creek strategists.
Munis have been relatively unchanged month-to-date, only experiencing an average bump of 1.7 basis points across the curve, said Jason Wong, vice president of municipals at AmeriVet Securities.
"With these small bumps, the past two weeks brought returns for the month to a total of negative 0.18%, and year-to-date returns to over 4.1%," he said.
Last week marked the end of the longest-ever government shutdown. Now, investors will turn their attention to the next possible rate cut, as economic data will determine whether the Federal Reserve will ease in December, Wong said.
The "data dumps" over the next several weeks could lead to market volatility, said Abdulla Begai, director and fixed income portfolio management at A&M Private Wealth Partners.
Additionally, tariffs — and whether the courts will adjudicate on them this year — could also spark some volatility, he said.
Supply fell last week as tax-exempt supply was between $8 billion and $9 billion, below this year's weekly average of $11 billion, Begai said.
Activity in the secondary market after Tuesday was slightly elevated compared to normal, he said.
Bids wanteds were above $1 billion Wednesday through Friday, indicating clients are "repositioning portfolios, selling to pay for new issuance bonds, and maybe a little tax-loss harvesting," Begai said.
As USTs rose to end the week, "dealers reported some caution setting in and overall trade volumes slowed down as buyers looked to [this week's large $16 billion calendar] for better entry points, Birch Creek strategists said.
The new-issue calendar could end up being even larger this week as there are around five prepaid gas deals totaling approximately $3 billion on the day-to-day calendar, Begai said.
Issuance will remain uneven from now until yearend due to the holidays, he said.
Supply will fall the week of Nov. 24 due to the Thanksgiving holiday but will rebound the week of Dec. 1, as there are already several large deals on the calendar, including $1.016 billion of Utility Debt Securitization Authority restructuring bonds and $969 million of revenue bonds from the
Supply for 2026 will be similar to, or maybe slightly lower than, 2025 volume, which is set to surpass 2024's record of $507.585 billion this week, Begai said.
There was a heavy proliferation of issuance during the first half of this year because of the fear of the tax exemption being gone, a topic that comes up every few years. But with this administration, there was a little more uncertainty, he said.
Supply will still be "sizable" next year as infrastructure and projects still need to be funded.
In the primary market Monday, J.P. Morgan priced for the Travis County Healthcare District, Texas, (Aa2///AA+/) $249.18 million of limited tax certificates of obligation, with 5s of 3/2027 at 2.69%, 5s of 2030 at 2.70%, 5s of 2035 at 3.00%, 5s of 2040 at 3.65%, 5s of 2045 at 4.25%, 5s of 2050 at 4.55% and 5.25s of 2055 at 4.59%, callable 3/1/2035.
AAA scales
MMD's scale was little changed: 2.52% (-2) in 2026 and 2.46% (unch) in 2027. The five-year was 2.41% (unch), the 10-year was 2.75% (unch) and the 30-year was 4.14% (unch) at 3 p.m.
The ICE AAA yield curve was little changed: 2.54% (-1) in 2026 and 2.46% (unch) in 2027. The five-year was at 2.41% (+1), the 10-year was at 2.76% (unch) and the 30-year was at 4.11% (unch) at 4 p.m.
The S&P Global Market Intelligence municipal curve was bumped three basis points at one-year: The one-year was at 2.52% (-3) in 2025 and 2.46% (unch) in 2026. The five-year was at 2.41% (unch), the 10-year was at 2.75% (unch) and the 30-year yield was at 4.12% (unch) at 3 p.m.
Bloomberg BVAL was unchanged: 2.51% in 2025 and 2.46% in 2026. The five-year at 2.37%, the 10-year at 2.70% and the 30-year at 4.04% at 4 p.m.
Treasuries were little changed.
The two-year UST was yielding 3.603% (-1), the three-year was at 3.604% (-1), the five-year at 3.718% (-1), the 10-year at 4.139% (-2), the 20-year at 4.704% (-2) and the 30-year at 4.734% (-2) near the close.
Primary to come
Ascension (Aa3/AA/AA/) is set to price Tuesday $2.1 billion of taxable refunding corporate CUSIPs. Jefferies.
Ascension Health Alliance (Aa3/AA/AA/) is set to price $1.745 billion of revenue bonds: $700.585 million of fixed-mode bonds, Series 2025A-1, through the Indiana Finance Authority; $273.5 million of long-term mode bonds, Series 2025B-1, through the Rutherford County Health and Educational Facilities Board, Tennessee; and $388.595 million of long-term mode bonds, Series 2025C-1, and $382.255 million of long-term mode bonds, Series 2025C-2, through the Tarrant County Cultural Education Facilities Finance Corp. Morgan Stanley.
The New York City Municipal Water Finance Authority (Aa1/AA+/AA+/) is set to price $1.032 billion of water and sewer system second general resolution refunding revenue bonds, Fiscal 2026 Series AA, consisting of $600 million of Series AA-1 and $431.57 million of Series AA-2. Barclays.
Houston (/BB+//) is set to price Tuesday $521.75 million of AMT airport system special facilities revenue bonds, consisting of $273.35 million of Series 2025B bonds (United Airlines terminal improvement projects); $145.6 million of Series 2025 bonds (United Airlines catering operations facility project); and $102.8 million of Series 2025 bonds (United Airlines ground services equipment facility project. BofA Securities.
The Ohio Water Development Authority (Aaa/AAA//) is set to price Tuesday $500 million of water pollution control loan fund revenue bonds. Jefferies.
The Sales Tax Securitization Corp. is set to price Wednesday $454.42 million of sales tax securitization bonds, consisting of $172.37 million of Series 2025A refunding bonds (/A+/AAA/AAA/), $206.485 of Series 2025A second lien refunding bonds (/A+/AA-/AA+/) and $57.11 million of Series 2025B taxable refunding bonds (/A+/AAA/AAA/). Goldman Sachs
The Los Angeles Community College District (Aaa/AA+//) is set to price Thursday $300 million of 2016 Election GO refunding bonds, Series F. BofA Securities.
The Massachusetts Housing Finance Agency (Aa2/AA+//) is set to price Tuesday $262.935 million of non-AMT sustainability housing bonds, consisting of $88.75 million of Series C-1 and $174.185 million of Series C-3. HilltopSecurities.
The Medical University Hospital Authority (Aa2/AA+//) is set to price Thursday $260.395 million of FHA-insured hospital mortgage revenue bonds (Indian Land Project). BofA Securities.
Harris County, Texas, (Aa2//AA/) is set to price Tuesday $211.22 million of toll road first lien revenue refunding bonds, Series 2025A. Baird.
Hamilton County, Ohio, is set to price Thursday $207 million of sales tax bond anticipation notes. Subordinate Series 2025 (Paycor Stadium Improvement Project). Stifel, Nicolaus & Co.
The Phoenix Civic Improvement Corp. (/AAA/AA+/) is set to price Tuesday $183.155 million of transportation excise tax revenue bonds, Series 2025. BofA Securities.
The Massachusetts Development Finance Agency (//BBB-/) is set to price Thursday $181.57 million of Tufts Medicine issue revenue bonds, consisting of $30.05 million of Series F bonds and $151.52 million of Series G taxable bonds. BofA Securities.
The University of Pittsburgh Commonwealth System of Higher Education (Aa1/AA+//) is set to price $175.375 million of Pitt asset notes. Barclays.
The Grand Rapids Economic Development Corp. is set to price Thursday $174.83 million of limited obligation revenue bonds (Beacon Hill At Eastgate Project), consisting of $107.83 million of Series A, $12.25 million of Series B-1, $15.75 million of Series B-2 and $39 million of Series B-3. Ziegler.
The University of Oklahoma Board of Regents (/AA-/A+/) is set to price Tuesday $171.91 million of tax-exempt general revenue refunding bonds, Series 2025A. Stifel, Nicolaus & Co.
Montgomery County, Texas, (Aaa/AA+//) is set to price Wednesday $154.585 million of limited tax refunding bonds, Series 2025A. RBC Capital Markets.
The Genesee County Funding Corp. (/BBB+//) is set to price Wednesday $150 million of revenue bonds (Rochester Regional Health Energy Projects), consisting of $142.195 million of Series 2025A bonds and $7.805 million Series 2025B taxable bonds. BofA Securities.
The Helena High School District, Montana, (A1/AA//) is set to price Thursday $130 million of GO school building bonds. D.A. Davidson.
The Central Texas Regional Mobility Authority (A2/A+// and A3/A//) is set to price Tuesday $123.745 million of revenue refunding bonds, consisting of $76.065 million of Series 2025A senior lien bonds and $47.68 million of Series B subordinate lien bonds. Wells Fargo.
The Public Finance Authority is set to price Thursday $116.915 million of tax-exempt student housing revenue bonds (PRG — Oxford Properties LLC), Series 2025A. Raymond James.
Colorado (Aa2/AA-//) is set to price Tuesday $115.595 million of tax-exempt building excellent schools today certificates of participation, Series 2025T. Piper Sandler.
The Chicago Park District (/AA-/AA/AA/) is set to price Tuesday $112.345 million of GO limited tax park bonds, consisting of $55 million of Series 2025A bonds and $57.345 million of Series 2025B refunding bonds. Loop Capital Markets.
The Golden State Connect Authority is set to price Thursday $106 million of telecommunications revenue bonds (Broadband Project). KeyBanc Capital Markets.
Competitive
The Missouri Highways and Transportation Commission (Aa1/AA+/AA+/) is set to sell $481.78 million of state appropriations mega projects state road bonds, Series A 2025, at 11 a.m. Eastern Tuesday.
Illinois (/A/A+/) is set to sell $300 million of Build Illinois bonds (sales tax revenue bonds), Junior Obligation Series A of December 2025, at 10:45 a.m. Tuesday; $150 million of Build Illinois bonds (sales tax revenue bonds), Junior Obligation Series B of December 2025, at 11:15 a.m. Tuesday; and $150 million of Build Illinois bonds (sales tax revenue bonds), Junior Obligation Series C of December 2025, at 11:45 a.m. Tuesday.
Fulton County, Georgia, (Aa2/AA/AA/) is set to sell $195.675 million of water and sewerage revenue refunding bonds at 10 a.m. Wednesday.
The Columbia County School District, Georgia, (Aa1/AA//) is set to sell $180 million of GOs, at 11 a.m. Tuesday.
The Davis School District Board of Education, Utah, (Aaa///) is set to sell $100 million of GOs, Series 2025B, at 11:30 a.m. Thursday.
