Secondary bond market

For investors in the municipal bond market, 2021 proved to be a year of hurdles. This is likely to change, particularly for investors in the municipal bond market.

The primary led Thursday's firmer tone while Chicago schools faced 10 to 20 bp penalties compared to price talk, signifying investors are being more selective and demanding more in the new higher-yield range.

Supply is beginning to roll in and the primary action on Wednesday provided more direction. ICI reports $1.4 billion of inflows.

Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell would not commit to timing for liftoff, stressing decisions would be data-based and the Fed will not allow inflation to become entrenched.

Pressures from inflation concerns and broader rising rates weigh on munis in the second week of 2022.

Munis followed UST weaker while stocks sold off after the employment report, which offered many messages. Analysts believe the bottom line is the Fed will liftoff in March.

The Federal Reserve expects Omicron to fizzle in weeks, and while pandemic-related risks remain, the economy is strong and the Fed needs to address inflation and could liftoff as soon as March, Bullard says.

ICI reported $1.101 billion of inflows into municipal bond mutual funds for the last week of 2021. Refinitiv Lipper figures on Thursday may give a sense of investor sentiment for week one of 2022.

The U.S. Treasury selloff caught up to tax-exempts with two to three basis point cuts to scales, but munis still outperform.

Municipals triple-A benchmarks continue the trend of ignoring other markets to start 2022. The new year will likely usher in slower growth and continued inflationary pressures, analysts said.

Municipal volume is estimated at $1.13 billion for the opening week of 2022. Persistently strong net supply challenges will bias credit spreads tighter, credit discipline weaker in the next few years, analysts say.

Net supply pressure among tax-exempts is expected to worsen in January compared to last year and the move toward richer tax-exempts is unlikely to reverse. "Dealers seem to be acknowledging this looming challenge," MMA notes.

Investors will also receive $139 billion of interest payments in 2022, about $593 million more than in 2021, according to a report from CreditSights.

Until supply comes, market participants appear to be content to sit back and let the calendar flip to a new year without making any big moves.

Municipals are sitting out the ups and downs in equities and UST, with $12 million scheduled for the primary in the final week of 2021.

Tax risks continue to linger as they are preserved as a potential offset for whatever level of spending all 50 Democratic senators can agree to, but potential approval of the legislation remains a question mark.

U.S. Treasuries saw losses pushing municipal to UST ratios on the 10- and 30-year lower again.

The Build Back Better in its current form essentially has been killed by Sen. Joe Manchin, likely limiting the potential for tax hikes in the coming year.

Municipal volume is estimated at a lean $558.8 million with $494.7 million of negotiated deals and $64.2 million on the competitive slate. Thirty-day visible supply is at $3.17 billion.

Despite outside pressures, municipal fundamentals are strong with improving credit pictures, issuers flush with federal cash and the ongoing supply-demand imbalance.