Primary bond market

Supply ramps up this week to an estimated $13.361 billion, with several billion-dollar pricings on tap.

The top 10 saw some shifts again.

As the underwriter landscape changes, so does the competitive market.

Municipal triple-A yield curves played catch up to USTs Friday to close out a week of more mixed economic data that has economists constantly reevaluating their Federal Reserve policy expectations with little consensus.

Municipal bond insurers wrapped $28.921 billion in the first three quarters 2024, a 26.8% increase from the $22.814 billion insured in the first three quarters of 2023, according to LSEG data.

Analysts remain divided about what the stronger-than-expected consumer price index will mean for Federal Reserve policymakers since the Fed appears to be concentrating on the labor market.

The Equitable School Revolving Fund will have 90 loans outstanding to charter schools across 23 states.

Chicago's City Council deferred a vote on a $1.5 billion bond measure.

With munis establishing "directional footing" in the fourth quarter of this year, the technical backdrop is still the market driver for 2024, said Jeff Lipton, a research analyst and market strategist.

Supply is slightly lower this week at nearly $10 billion but not by much, with the pace of supply suggesting $500 billion of issuance for the year could still happen, said Tripp Kaiser, a managing director at Municipal Market Analytics, Inc.

The district plans to price about $100 million of bonds Thursday, the first since Gov. Ron DeSantis took over control of it by appointing its board of supervisors.

The University of Arizona, which was hit with negative rating outlooks earlier this year, scheduled a debt refunding led by Morgan Stanley for Wednesday.

Muni yields were cut up two to five basis points, depending on the curve, while UST yields rose five to seven basis points, pushing the 10-year UST yields above 4%.

Cleveland returns to market Wednesday in the first of two bond deals this month. That $64.4 million GO deal funds public parks, bridges and road improvements.

Municipal investors can expect just shy of $10 billion of new issues from which to choose the first full week of October and the fourth quarter, led by a $1.5 billion taxable general obligation bond offering from New York City. Connecticut is bringing $935 million of general obligation bonds.

Municipal bond mutual funds saw inflows of $1.879 billion in the latest week, marking the 14th consecutive week of inflows and the highest level of 2024, per LSEG data, reiterating the strong investor support for this market.

This surge in demand "is no coincidence — it's the result of weeks of relentless inflows, further amplified by the Federal Reserve's recent rate cut," said 16Rock Asset Management CIO James Pruskowski.

The biggest theme within the muni market — and what is responsible for its performance — is the amount of cash on the sidelines, with $6-plus trillion in money market funds and close to $2.5 trillion in certificates of deposits, said Julio Bonilla, a fixed-income portfolio manager at Schroders.

Speakers at the LGBTQ+ History Month mixer pushed back against attacks on diversity.

The larger supply calendar should be "taken down well given the persistent inflows into our market and investors are still sitting on plenty of cash," said Daryl Clements, a municipal portfolio manager at AllianceBernstein.