Primary bond market

Investors will be greeted with a diverse new-issue slate the week of Dec. 9, led by bellwether names. If all the deals price, 2024's total should break 2020's record by the end of the week. Despite rich valuations, demand has remained strong as the year winds down.

High-yield municipal bond funds saw inflows of $534.1 million compared to $300.6 million compared the previous week, per LSEG Lipper data.

"This matter is now under active investigation by federal authorities and impacted financial institutions, who are coordinating with the White Lake Township Police Department," said Daniel Keller, chief of police, in a statement.

Technicals could "break down" if there is a potential decline in risk assets or rising unemployment, particularly in white-collar jobs, said Jeff Timlin, a managing partner at Sage Advisory.

Blackstone Inc. is refinancing tax-exempt debt for a 76-story residential tower in downtown Manhattan designed by famed architect Frank Gehry.

Muni investors hope "any move toward higher yields is steady, even dignified, such that it doesn't catalyze an outflow cycle that would countervail year-to-date total returns just before we close out the year," said Vikram Rai, head of municipal strategy at Wells Fargo.

Munis ended November in the black with the asset class seeing gains of 1.73% for the month, pushing year-to-date returns to 2.55%.

The product is designed to compartmentalize information and provide a unified system to monitor bank activities, forecast cash inflows and outflows, and prevent fraud.

With an estimated $13 billion calendar on tap, demand for paper will be bolstered by the $16 billion of redemptions coming Monday while mutual fund inflows, this week at about $560 million and concentrated in the long-end, signal solid investor support. Munis are returning 1.73% in November as of Friday.

The Investment Company Institute reported $1.221 billion of inflows into municipal bond mutual funds for the week ending Nov. 20. Exchange-traded funds saw inflows of $836 million.

November's total is below the 10-year average of $32.278 billion and is the lowest monthly total this year. The year's total is about $25 billion short of $500 billion.

"Earlier this month, Chair [Jerome] Powell noted that there was no 'hurry' to cut rates," noted BMO Senior Economist Priscilla Thiagamoorthy. The minutes, she noted, "confirm a broad support for taking a more cautious approach in easing monetary policy."

Markets could see that "the risks of higher inflation and interest rates are implicit constraints on the Trump policy agenda, with the eventual policy outcomes potentially less inflationary than some investors previously feared," UBS strategists noted.

Supply has "declined materially, allowing dealers to take a breather, with their inventories dropping significantly, while retail investors do not seem to be spooked by rate volatility, lower taxes and possible threats to the tax-exempts, and continued putting money into tax-exempts at a brisk pace," said Mikhail Foux, managing director and head municipal research and strategy at Barclays.

High-yield funds saw $608.9 million of inflows compared with inflows of $150.3 million the week prior.

Municipals are outperforming USTs to a large degree this month, with investment grade munis seeing positive 0.81% returns in November and 1.63% year-to-date. USTs are in the red at -0.40% in November with only 0.96% positive returns in 2024.

"This year, with the tax-exemption clearly threatened, primary calendars should (although, of course, might not) be larger, putting a $500 billion full-year supply total in range, with $451 billion already in the books through 46 weeks," said MMA's Matt Fabian.

The low-rated, Phoenix-based university turned to a public debt sale after refinancing maturing outstanding bonds with bridge loans.

The wealthy city is borrowing $124.2 million through its finance authority. The bonds are backed by lease payments the city will pay from its general fund.

Houston is set to price Tuesday $1 billion of United Airlines Terminal Improvement Projects AMT revenue bonds while the Public Finance Authority will bring $125 million of non-rated Million Air Three General Aviation Facilities Project revenue bonds.