Primary bond market

California plans to price $2.5 billion in new money and refunding general obligation bonds next week, with retail orders Tuesday and final pricing Wednesday.

Following Wednesday's selloff, muni yields were cut even further, with yields rising up to six basis points, depending on the scale. Meanwhile, UST yields rose two basis points out long.

"We're navigating a crosscurrent of macro risks — tariffs, tax policy proposals, DOGE cuts, and evolving economic data — layered on top of a broader risk-off tone," said James Pruskowski, CIO of 16Rock Asset Management.

What's happening to the muni market is the "confluence of modest selling (via fund outflows and retail perhaps pausing during tax season); a heavy new issue calendar; and very thin near-term reinvestment expectations," said Matt Fabian, a partner at Municipal Market Analytics.

Another big deal from a major borrower is moving forward after Rochester's City Council last week approved a conduit bond sale for the Mayo Clinic.

Lighter supply, at an estimated $7.9 billion, and still-attractive valuations should allow for solid muni performance this week, said J.P. Morgan strategists.

An Oklahoma agency is borrowing $1.15 billion through an unrated tax-exempt Public Finance Authority bond deal to build and equip a tire factory backed by Finnish interests.

Municipal bond issuance for the week of March 24 is at $7.923 billion, with $6.673 billion of negotiated deals and $1.251 billion of competitive deals on tap.

Separately managed accounts have exploded in the muni market in recent years but high-yield SMAs remain rare.

Most of Thursday's issuance came from competitive deals, the largest being the Dormitory Authority of the State of New York with $2 billion-plus and California with $889 billion.

The bonds, which are expected to sell soon, are rated A1 by Moody's Ratings.

The series 2025B Black Belt Energy Gas District bonds are rated Baa1 by Moody's Ratings based on Deutsche Bank's key role in the transaction.

Wednesday marked the first trading session that saw cuts more than a basis point or two in spots since last week's extended selloff.

The slowdown of growth in the fourth quarter does not imply there is dwindling demand for munis, said Pat Luby, head of municipal strategy at CreditSights.

"While there has been some reported buying by relative value institutions amid higher ratios from the muni-centric price correction, the market as a whole may not rally this week," said Matt Fabian, a partner at Municipal Market Analytics.

Hospital and health insurance operator UPMC's $735 million deal looks routine. But the volatile healthcare and insurance environments may disrupt that standard.

Municipals are little changed to start the week after last week's selloff, which saw muni yields cut up to 20 basis points out long.

Gov. Josh Stein said in his State of the State address too many schools are overcrowded or decrepit.

March had been expected to be difficult due to a "combination of heavy supply, low redemptions, rate volatility, tax-related selling and now fund outflows," said Barclays strategists Mikhail Foux and Grace Cen.

A $150 million housing bonds with a taxable component is anticipated for May and $110 million higher education student loan bonds are also anticipated for that month.