Primary bond market

After digit-double cuts out long Wednesday, muni yields rose an additional two to four basis points, depending on the curve, on Thursday.

"The supply/demand dynamic is a headwind for the muni market this week as supply is expected to be elevated," said Cooper Howard, a fixed income strategist at Charles Schwab.

"The ever-shifting narrative regarding President Trump's tariff policies is throwing fuel on the fire of unpredictability," said SWBC's Chris Brigati.

The market rally "took a bit of a breather last week, with yields rising across the curve," said Daryl Clements, a portfolio manager at AllianceBernstein.

"March is not an overly positive month for munis, but a lot will depend on U.S. Treasuries," said Barclays strategist Mikhail Foux.

"Markets fixate on one risk at a time, and there's no shortage right now. Volatility has spiked, liquidity is thin, and buyers are sidelined — but that's temporary," said James Pruskowski, chief investment officer at 16Rock Asset Management.

Ordinances pending before the city council would authorize up to $325 million of interim financing that would be refunded with fixed-rate, 30-year bonds.

Issuance remains heavy this week, but while it's elevated, the muni market is "structurally undersupplied," meaning if 2024's record level of $500 billion-plus of issuance was doubled, the market could still digest it quite well, said Wesly Pate, a senior portfolio manager at Income Research + Management.

The Texas city, which is considering an $800 million general obligation bond election next year, expects to issue nearly $400 million of debt in 2025.

Illinois will sell $725 million of junior sales tax revenue bonds in a competitive deal pricing Tuesday. The Build Illinois bonds will fund capital projects.

Short-end U.S. Treasuries rallied mid-morning, while UST yields were little changed out long, but ended the day weaker across most of the curve with the greatest losses out long. Munis were steady throughout the day.

The New York City Transitional Finance Authority plans to make an impact on the municipal market this month with $1.8 billion of bond sales.

S&P Global Ratings primarily cited a "precipitous decline" in unrestricted cash to explain its triple-notch downgrade of the system.

"Apathy and caution" were the theme of the past week, said Birch Creek strategists.

Wisconsin will be in the market Wednesday with $253.9 million of general obligation bonds, with some proceeds funding the Blatnik Bridge replacement project.

The $2.5 billion Brightline West and $849 million Hawaii deals stood out among the rash of issuances last month alongside the ongoing tax exemption debate.

New York City leads the negotiated calendar with $1.4 billion of GOs, followed by the Regents of the University of California with $1.2 billion of general revenue bonds.

While UST yields rose up to five basis points out long Thursday, the current rally "that has taken the 30-year UST closer to where the 10-year yield traded a week ago has not impacted the same range in munis," said Kim Olsan, senior fixed income portfolio manager at NewSquare.

The planned fiscal 2026 increase in bonding is expected to continue for several years.

Chicago's City Council on Wednesday approved the sale of $830 million of general obligation bonds that Mayor Brandon Johnson says will fund infrastructure improvements.