Primary bond market

Municipals took a breather Monday, largely ignoring stock market volatility and softer U.S. Treasuries, ahead of a solid $9 billion new-issue week.

The finance team expects the mixed taxable and tax-exempt deal will attract ESG-minded investors.

Ratios have moved into a higher, more favorable range, especially in the belly of the curve. The municipal calendar is building, led by taxables and refundings, after they dropped significantly in September.

The lower inflows and high-yield outflows can be tied to the correction over the past week and may point to uncertainty from retail investors over broader market volatility.

September issuance was down more than 32% from the same month in 2020; total issuance so far this year is at $346.48 billion, down 2.4% compared to last year.

With a lot of cash still needing to be put to work, the Investment Company Institute showed another large week of inflows at $1.814 billion.

Municipals have not tracked directly with the UST moves, where the 10- and 30-year UST has risen 24 and 26 basis points, respectively, from Wednesday. Municipals have seen yields rise by 16 and 11 basis points.

The district follows up on a taxable refunding with some new money and refunding as the ink dries on pension legislation that removes the threat of insolvency.

Chris Johns and JT Thompson, portfolio managers at the Aquila Group of Funds talk about the possible return of a BABs-like program and if it’s good or bad news for the tax-exempt bond market. They also discuss infrastructure, tax-exempt advance refundings and monetary policy. (21 minutes)

The high-grade muni scales saw cuts of up to four basis points in a continued selloff Monday as the market faces a robust slate of new issues.

Month-to-date returns for municipals are in the red with the Bloomberg Fixed Income Indices municipal index returning -0.12%, high-yield at -0.15% and taxables at -0.32%.

U.S. Treasuries sold off by double digits while municipals cut levels by one to three basis points. Refinitiv Lipper reported another $1.55 billion of inflows for the 29th consecutive week.

Municipals continue to stay in their own lane. ICI reported $1.4 billion of inflows in the 28th consecutive week.

The authority's officials have adjusted to the hit from COVID-19 through toll hikes, capital plan reductions and lines of credit.

Data released Tuesday reflected a murky picture on the strength of the economy, but the market’s eyes were fixed on the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting in Washington, D.C.

Without the primary in play and a mostly muted secondary, triple-A yield curves were little changed, coming nowhere near the moves in UST with the 10- and 30-year falling five and six basis points as equities saw their worst day since May.

The school will sell $600 million of bonds that a third party verifier said meet green standards.

The commowealth is flush with cash but still managing the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Municipals have been distracted by the robust primary market and that trend will continue next week when another large new-issue calendar greets investors.

Several strategists estimate the municipal market will be 50% taxable in five years if a direct-pay bond option makes its way into law.