Revenue collections in the upscale ski resort town of Vail are expected to be stagnant over the next five years. The latest projection from local officials shows revenue in 2015 coming in at $43.5 million, slightly less than collections in 2009.

Kathleen Halloran, Vail’s manager of budgets and financial reports, told the town council last week that the five-year estimate shows a 10% decrease in revenue for fiscal 2011 from fiscal 2010.

The long-term revenue estimate shows annual decreases through 2013, and then increases of about 1% in 2014 and 2015.

Total tax revenue dropped by 25% in fiscal 2009 from fiscal 2008, according to Halloran.

Revenues are unlikely to reach 2008 levels for many years, she said.

Total revenue peaked in 2008 at $58 million. Collections in fiscal 2010 totaled $50.6 million.

Revenues for fiscal 2011 are estimated at $45.7 million.

The council is in the midst of developing a budget for fiscal 2011.

Sales at three major residential resort projects are expected to boost revenue from the real estate transfer tax by about $4.7 million, she said, which would be a 9% increase from fiscal 2010.

Sales of units in the three projects are expected to account for 62% of the total revenue from the transfer tax.

A July 15 memo to the council from Halloran, town manager Stan Zemler, and finance director Judy Camp said sluggish sales are expected at the three resorts over the next five years.

“Over the entire five-year span, our revenue projections assume that two-thirds of units sell in total for these three major projects, with resales thereafter of only two per year,” the memo said.

The officials said transfer tax revenue from 2012 through 2015 is expected to range from $2.6 million to $3.2 million per year. Even the highest projection is below the five-year average of $3.5 million per year before the areas were developed, from 2000 to 2004.

The real estate transfer tax generates 10% of the town’s total revenue.

Sales tax revenues provide 37% of total collections.

Other sources include the property tax, which accounts for 11% of revenue, and the ski lift tax, with 7% of total revenue.

Vail has an issuer rating of Aa2 from Moody’s Investors Service.

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