The composite of the Leading Economic Index was up 0.5% in September following a 0.4% gain in August, the Conference Board said Thursday.
The coincident index slid 0.1% in September after a 0.3% rise in August, while the lagging index grew 0.1% in September, after a 0.2% increase in August.
The LEI stands at 111.8, the coincident index is at 104.4 and the lagging index is at 105.3. The LEI has a baseline of 100, which reflects the level in 2016.
Economists polled by IFR Markets predicted LEI would be up 0.5% in the month.
“The US LEI improved further in September, suggesting the US business cycle remains on a strong growth trajectory heading into 2019,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, director of business cycles and growth research at The Conference Board. “However, the LEI’s growth has slowed somewhat in recent months, suggesting the economy may be facing capacity constraints and increasingly tight labor markets. Economic growth could exceed 3.5 percent in the second half of 2018, but, unless the momentum in housing, orders and stock prices accelerates, that pace is unlikely to be sustained in 2019.”
