Richmond Fed: Retail Sector Rebounds

NEW YORK – “Service sector activity strengthened in November, boosted by improvement in the retail sub-sector,” according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond service-sector activity survey, released Tuesday, “Revenues at services-providing firms were nearly flat this month, but retail sales jumped and foot traffic rose sharply. Big-ticket sales were flat, however. Retail inventories expanded and merchants were upbeat about potential sales during the next six months. Services providers remained optimistic about revenues in the six months ahead, though their outlook was somewhat less enthusiastic than in October.”

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Overall, the service sector revenues index reversed to positive 6 in November, from negative 8 in October, while the number of employees index fell to negative 2 from zero, the average wage index slid to 5 from 15, and the expected product demand during the next six months index increased to 11 from zero.

The indexes are the percentage of responding firms reporting increase, less the percentage reporting a decrease.

By sector, the retail area excluding services firms reported the sales revenues index soared to positive 23 in November from negative 8 in October, the number of employees index slipped to negative 13 from negative 9, while the average wages index dipped to 4 from 5. The inventories index rose to positive 26 from negative 3, while the big-ticket sales index slid to 1 from 4. The shopper traffic index surged to positive 23 from negative 1, while expected product demand during the next six months soared to positive 27 from negative 19.

For services firms excluding retail, the revenues index was positive 1, compared to negative 8 last month, while the number of employees index decreased to negative 1 from positive 3, and the average wage index fell to 5 from 16. The expected product demand during the next six months index slipped to 5 from 8.

The current price trend for the two sectors together jumped to 1.24 from 0.70, while rising to 2.05 from 1.33 for retail alone and growing to 1.09 from 0.53 for services, excluding retail.

The expected price trend index for the two sectors together grew to 1.51 in November from 1.17 in October, while increasing to 2.17 from 2.02 for retail alone and jumping to 1.34 from 1.01 for services, excluding retail.

All firms surveyed are located within the Fifth Federal Reserve District, which includes the District of Columbia, Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, and most of West Virginia.


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