NEW YORK – Forecasts for real GDP growth in the last half of 2011 were cut to 2.5% from the 3.2% expected six months ago, while projections for the first half of 2012 were slashed to 2.1% growth from the 3.0% expected six months ago, according to the Livingston Survey, released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Thursday.
They forecasters raised projections for unemployment to 9.0% at year-end 2011, from 8.6% in the last survey, 8.9% at mid-year 2012, compared to their previous projection of 8.3%, and 8.7% at year-end 2012.
The inflation outlook was nearly flat when based on CPI, but two ticks lower when based on PPI. Those surveyed see 3.2% inflation this year, 2.2% next year, and 2.3% in 2013 based on CPI, and 6.1%, 2.3% and 2.6% based on PPI.
The panelists expect the three-month Treasury bill interest rate to be 0.01% on Dec. 30, rising to 0.05% on June 29, 2012, and 0.38% at the end of 2013, much lower than previous estimates. The 10-year is seen at 2.10%, 2.40%, 2.75% and 3.16%, again, way below the last projections.
