NEW YORK - The composite index of Leading Economic Indicators rose 0.7% in February following a revised 0.2% gain in January, originally reported as a 0.4% increase, the Conference Board reported Thursday.
The coincident index grew 0.2% in February after an unrevised 0.2% gain in January, while the lagging index rose 0.2% after a revised 0.5% jump in January, originally reported as a 0.4% increase.
The LEI stands at 95.5, the coincident index is at 104.0 and the lagging index is at 114.41 The LEI has a baseline of 100, which reflects the level in 2004.
Economists polled by Thomson Reuters predicted LEI would be up 0.6% in the month.
“Recent data reflect an economy that improved this winter,” said the Conference Board economist Ken Goldstein. “To be sure, an unseasonably mild winter has contributed to many of the recent positive economic reports. But the consistent signal for the leading series suggests that progress on jobs, output and incomes may continue through the summer months, if not beyond.”
“Continued broad-based gains in the LEI for the United States confirm a more positive outlook for general economic activity in the first half of 2012, although still subdued consumer expectations and the purchasing managers’ index for new orders held the LEI back in February,” according to the Conference Board Economist Ataman Ozyildirim. “The CEI for the United States, a measure of current economic conditions, has also been rising as employment, income and sales data all continue to improve. Industrial production, however, has not yet picked up strongly.”
Eight of the 10 indicators that comprise the LEI rose in January: average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance (inverted), interest rate spread, stock prices, building permits, average weekly manufacturing hours, manufacturers' new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft, Leading Credit Index (inverted), and manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials. Average consumer expectations for business conditions and ISM new orders index were negative.
The coincident index saw manufacturing and trade sales, employees on nonagricultural payrolls, and personal income less transfer payments rise in the month. Industrial production was flat.
The lagging index saw positives from ratio of consumer installment credit outstanding to personal income, average duration of unemployment (inverted), and change in labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing. Change in CPI for services, commercial and industrial loans outstanding and ratio of manufacturing and trade inventories to sales were negative. Average prime rate charged by banks was flat in the month.
