NEW YORK - The composite index of Leading Economic Indicators slid 0.1% in April following an unrevised 0.3% gain in March, the Conference Board reported Thursday.
The coincident index grew 0.2% in April after an unrevised 0.2% gain in March, while the lagging index rose 0.5% after an unrevised 0.3% climb in March.
The LEI stands at 95.5, the coincident index is at 104.3 and the lagging index is at 114.9 The LEI has a baseline of 100, which reflects the level in 2004.
Economists polled by Thomson Reuters predicted LEI would be up 0.1% in the month.
“The indicators reflect an economy that’s still struggling to gain momentum,” said the Conference Board economist Ken Goldstein. “Growth is slow, but choppy, and consumers, executives and investors are looking for more progress.”
“The LEI declined slightly in April. Falling housing permits, rising initial claims for unemployment insurance and subdued consumer expectations offset small gains in the remaining components,” said the Conference Board Economist Ataman Ozyildirim. “The LEI’s six-month growth rate fell slightly, but remains in expansionary territory and well above its growth at the end of 2011. The CEI, a measure of current economic conditions, has also increased for five consecutive months.”
Half of the 10 indicators that comprise the LEI rose in April: interest rate spread, average weekly manufacturing hours, ISM new orders index, Leading Credit Index (inverted), and manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials. Building permits, average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance (inverted), average consumer expectations for business conditions, and stock prices were negative. Manufacturers' new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft was flat.
The coincident index saw manufacturing and trade sales, industrial production, employees on nonagricultural payrolls, and personal income less transfer payments all rise in the month.
The lagging index saw positives from commercial and industrial loans outstanding, ratio of consumer installment credit outstanding to personal income, average duration of unemployment (inverted), and change in index of labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing, and change in CPI for services. The ratio of manufacturing and trade inventories to sales and average prime rate charged by banks were flat in the month.
