June Chicago Fed Nat’l Activity Index gains as production rebounds

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The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for June reversed to positive 0.43 from a downwardly revised negative 0.45 in May, while the three-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3) gained to 0.16 from a downwardly revised 0.10, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago reported Monday.

The CFNAI for May was originally reported as negative 0.15, while the CFNAI-MA3 was 0.18 in the first read.

In May 2017, the index was 0.12, while the CFNAI-MA3 was 0.13 in that month.

The CFNAI diffusion index, also a three-month moving average, held at 0.15. A year ago, the diffusion index was 0.03.

The production indicators contributed 0.36 from CFNAI in the month (compared to a subtraction of 0.56 in the previous month), while employment-related indicators contributed 0.08 to the index in the month, after an 0.11 contribution in May, the Fed said.

Personal consumption and housing-related data subtracted 0.06 in the month, after taking 0.04 off the index in the prior month, while sales, orders and inventories added 0.06 in the month after a 0.03 contribution the month before.

The index is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity. A zero value for the index indicates that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth; negative values are associated with below-trend growth while positive values indicate above-trend growth.

The index was constructed using data available by July 19, with data for 51 of the 85 indicators having been published by then. The Fed said it used estimates for the missing data.

Overall, 45 of the 85 indicators made positive contributions to the index in the month and 40 made negative contributions. While 45 indicators were better than the previous month, 12 of these still made negative contributions to the index. Also, 40 deteriorated from May to June.

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Economic indicators Manufacturing industry Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago