The passing of Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., on Saturday from an aortic dissection will have an immediate effect on the final months of the 119th Congress, with major legislation hanging in the balance including another budget reconciliation.
"Losing Senator Graham, a longtime Senate stalwart and current budget chair, likely dooms any efforts to pass a third reconciliation package this Congress," said Brett Bolton vice president of federal legislative and regulatory policy for Bond Market Association..
"With limited legislative days prior to the midterm elections this November, and now a leadership void in the Senate, the task just became much more difficult," Bolton adds.
Graham's Senate Budget Committee leadership chair will likely go to Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wis.
Johnson aligned with Graham as a staunch Trump supporter, but Johnson is more of a budget hawk who has not supported reconciliation that would raise spending.
Graham also sat on the Environment and Public Works Committee, the current resting place for the surface transportation reauthorization legislation that will help determine how and where infrastructure funding flows.
The House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee has already completed its side of the legislation. Senate EPW held a budget proposal hearing from the Federal Highway Administration in June but has since gone silent.
Both sides have signaled the replacement for the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act will focus more on fixing roads and bridges by leaning into formula funding as opposed to discretionary grants.
Graham was also a senior member of the Appropriations Committee which has not passed any of its 12 bills out of the committee level. The House has moved on all of theirs and advanced two to the next level of initial full House approval.
The White House has lost a loyal soldier and a highly skilled dealmaker with the passing of Graham.
"The senator was instrumental in getting President Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill across the finish line late last year and was a champion for the immigration spending focused package earlier this year," said Bolton.
OBBBA phased out the clean energy tax credits favored by the Biden administration to free up funding for immigration and border control.
OBBBA also created tax-exempt private-activity bonds for spaceports and tweaked the rules governing low-income housing tax credits.
LIHTCs rely on private-activity bonds and are a key component in the capital stack used to develop affordable housing.
Graham was also one of the 19 Senate Republicans who supported the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act.
"Sen. Graham will be remembered by local leaders for his support of local communities, including the bipartisan IIJA, [and] his work as a senior member of the Senate Appropriations Committee, where he consistently secured funding for projects across South Carolina," said National League of Cities president and Louisville, Ky., Councilmember Kevin Kramer said in a post on X.
Republican South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster will appoint a temporary replacement to serve the remainder of Graham's Senate term, which ends in January 2027.
Because Graham was seeking reelection prior to his death, a special primary election is required by August 11 to choose the Republican nominee, who will face Democrat Annie Andrews, a pediatrician, in November.
