Fed survey: Inflation flat; wage expectations soar

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Consumers’ inflation expectations held, but respondents’ optimism about wages surged, according to the September Survey of Consumer Expectations, released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on Tuesday.

Median inflation expectations remained 3.0% for a one-year period and 3% for a three-year horizon, remaining at virtually the same levels since April.

Turning to labor, the expected earnings growth for one-year grew to 2.8%, the highest it’s been, from 2.5%. Respondents earning between $50,000 and $100,000 fueled the increase, according to the survey. The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months gained to 16.0% — its highest reading since November 2016 — from 13.8%, while the mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily in the next 12 months gained to 23.4% from 20.6%.

The probability of finding a job, if one lost his/her current job, rose to 59.3% from 57.8%.

Median one-year ahead home prices are expected to grow 3.6%.

Median household spending expectations decreased to 2.9% from 3.2%, below its 12-month average of 3.1%.

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Economic indicators Federal Reserve Bank of New York