Consumers’ inflation expectations held, but respondents’ optimism about wages dipped, according to the July Survey of Consumer Expectations, released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on Monday.
Median inflation expectations remained 3.0% for a one-year period and slid to 2.9% from 3% for a three-year horizon.
Turning to labor, the expected earnings growth for one-year fell to 2.4% from 2.7%. The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months dropped to 14.0% from 15.2%, while the mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily in the next 12 months gained to 23.2% from 21.4%.
The probability of finding a job, if one lost his/her current job, rose to 59.8% from 58.6%.
Median one-year ahead home prices are expected to grow 3.7%, down from 3.9% last month, the Fed said, above its 12-month average of 3.4%.
Median household spending expectations decreased to 3.2% from 3.3%, above its 12-month average of 3.0%. Income growth expectations crept to 2.8% from 2.7%.
“Expectations for changes in the cost of medical care decreased from 9.6% in June to 8.5% in July, its lowest value since May 2015,” according to the release.
Respondents’ expectations of their financial situation “deteriorated slightly.”
“The mean perceived probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher 12 months from now than they are today decreased to 40.3%, its lowest level since October 2016,” according to the survey.
