Fed survey: Inflation expectations nearly steady in March, gas prices seen rising

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Consumers’ inflation expectations ticked up for the three-year horizon, according to the March Survey of Consumer Expectations, released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on Monday.

Survey of Consumer Expectations

Median inflation expectations held at 2.8% in March the one-year period and rose to 2.9% from 2.8% for a three-year horizon, according to the survey.

The median expectation for change in the price of gas rose to 4.7% from 4.3%, the highest level since June 2018.

The expected earnings growth for one-year grew to 2.6% from 2.5%. The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months slipped to 14.3% from 14.6%, while the mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily in the next 12 months grew to 21.8% from 21.2%.

The probability of finding a job, if one lost his/her current job, fell to 58.6%, the lowest since August 2018, from 59.3%.

Median one-year ahead home prices are expected to grow 3.0%, unchanged for four months at the lowest reading of the series, the Fed said.

Median household income growth expectations jumped to 2.8% from 2.5%, after three declines in a row, while spending growth expectations remained at 3.1%.

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Inflation Federal Reserve Bank of New York
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