Fed survey: Inflation expectations nearly steady in March, gas prices seen rising

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Consumers’ inflation expectations ticked up for the three-year horizon, according to the March Survey of Consumer Expectations, released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on Monday.

Median inflation expectations held at 2.8% in March the one-year period and rose to 2.9% from 2.8% for a three-year horizon, according to the survey.

The median expectation for change in the price of gas rose to 4.7% from 4.3%, the highest level since June 2018.

The expected earnings growth for one-year grew to 2.6% from 2.5%. The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months slipped to 14.3% from 14.6%, while the mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily in the next 12 months grew to 21.8% from 21.2%.

The probability of finding a job, if one lost his/her current job, fell to 58.6%, the lowest since August 2018, from 59.3%.

Median one-year ahead home prices are expected to grow 3.0%, unchanged for four months at the lowest reading of the series, the Fed said.

Median household income growth expectations jumped to 2.8% from 2.5%, after three declines in a row, while spending growth expectations remained at 3.1%.

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Inflation Federal Reserve Bank of New York