Fed survey: Inflation expectations hold; income, spending rise

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Consumers’ inflation expectations held, but respondents expect income and spending to rise, according to the October Survey of Consumer Expectations, released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on Tuesday.

Median inflation expectations remained 3.0% for a one-year period and 3% for a three-year horizon, remaining at virtually the same levels since April.

“Median expected household income growth increased notably from 2.5% in September to 2.9% in October,” according to the survey. “The increase was broad based across age and income groups.”

Turning to labor, the expected earnings growth for one-year grew to 2.5% from 2.8%. Respondents under 40 and those with a high school diploma or less education showed the largest drop. The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months declined to 13.5% (its lowest level since February) from 16.0%, while the mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily in the next 12 months slid to 20.8% from 23.4%.

The probability of finding a job, if one lost his/her current job, dipped to 58.7% from 59.3%.

Median one-year ahead home prices are expected to grow 3.3%, off from 3.6% last month.

Median household spending expectations soared to 3.7% — its highest level since December 2016 — from 2.9%, with gains across ages and income groups.

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Economic indicators Federal Reserve Bank of New York