The Conference Board's Employment Trends Index (ETI) climbed to 111.15 in February from a downwardly revised 109.34 in January, first reported as 109.56, and is up 4.3% from a year ago, the group announced Monday.
The base year of the composite index is 2016=100.
"The Employment Trends Index bounced back in February," said Gad Levanon, chief economist, North America, at The Conference Board. "Last month’s reading had been negatively influenced by the partial government shutdown. In recent months, the index is no longer on an upward trend, suggesting that job growth will slow down in 2019."
“The meager job gain of 20,000 in February was an aberration,” he said. “We still expect employment to grow fast enough for the labor market to tighten further in 2019, making it easier for job seekers to find a job. One of the ETI components, the percent of respondents who say they find ‘Jobs Hard to Get’ from The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey, is now at the lowest rate since 2000.”
The increasing indicators — from the largest to the smallest — were: the ratio of involuntarily part-time to all part-time workers, percentage of respondents who say they find “jobs hard to get,” real manufacturing and trade sales, the percentage of firms with positions not able to fill right now, job openings, industrial production, and the number of employees hired by the temporary-help industry, according to the Conference Board.
The ETI aggregates eight labor-market indicators, each of which has proven accurate in its own area. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.
The eight labor-market indicators aggregated into the ETI include: Percentage of respondents who say they find "Jobs Hard to Get" (The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey); Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance (U.S. Department of Labor); Percentage of Firms With Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now (National Federation of Independent Business Research Foundation); Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics); Part-time Workers for Economic Reasons (BLS); Job Openings (BLS); Industrial Production (Federal Reserve Board); and Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis).
