NEW YORK - The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for February fell to negative 0.09 from a revised positive 0.33 reading in January, while the three-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3) improved to 0.30 in February from a revised 0.22 in January, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago reported Monday.
In February 2011, the index was negative 0.23, while the CFNAI-MA3 was positive 0.12 in that month. The February CFNAI-MA3 is the highest it’s been since May 2010.
The January index was originally reported as positive 0.22, while the December CFNAI-MA3 was first reported as positive 0.14.
The positive reading for the CFNAI-MA3 indicates national economic growth was above its historical trend, and suggests limited inflationary pressure from economic activity in the coming year, the Chicago Fed said.
The production indicators subtracted 0.01 in the month (compared to a contribution of 0.30 in the previous month), while employment-related indicators contributed 0.18 in the month, after providing a 0.36 contribution in January, the Fed said.
Consumption and housing-related data subtracted 0.27 in the month, after subtracting 0.29 the prior month, while sales, orders and inventories contributed 0.01 in the month, after subtracting 0.03 in January.
The index is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity. A zero value for the index indicates that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth; negative values are associated with below-trend growth while positive values indicate above-trend growth.
Overall, 52 of the 85 indicators made positive contributions to the index in the month and 33 made negative contributions. While 35 indicators were better than the previous month, 12 of these still made negative contributions to the index. Also, 49 indicators deteriorated from January to February and one was flat.
The index was constructed using data available by March 22, with data for 51 of the 85 indicators having been published by then. The Fed said it used estimates for the missing data.
