Jessica Lerner

Triple-A muni yields fell 10 to 14 basis points while UST saw gains of up to 16bps out long as market participants consider a potential end to Fed rate hikes.

"The big question is: who's next? I don't think UBS is the end," said a veteran sellside market participant.

Municipals closed out October in the red, the third consecutive month of losses for the asset class.

While the FOMC statement will likely have very few changes, the post-minutes release press conference will be the wildcard.

October's total volume rose 29.3% to $37.156 billion in 661 issues from $28.738 billion in 614 issues a year earlier. New-money grew more than 30% while refundings were up by nearly 75%.

Another month of muni losses "may spark additional sale pressure as some investors throw in the towel, but we suspect any further weakness would represent a strong entry point for [investment grade] buyers," Birch Creek Capital said in a weekly report.

If Treasury rates become "more stabilized," it provides "a good reason to be somewhat constructive on munis for a while," BofA Global Research said in a report.

The tool will deliver users historical deal-based spreads to help in the new-issue market as well as find potential refunding opportunities, said SOLVE's Gregg Bienstock, senior vice president and group head of municipal markets.

Investors continue to pull money from muni mutual funds with LSEG Lipper reporting $934.7 million of outflows for the week ending Wednesday after $297 million of outflows the week prior.

Municipal mutual fund losses continued last week — but to a lesser extent — as the Investment Company Institute Wednesday reported investors pulled $1.291 billion from the funds in the week ending Oct. 18 after $2.645 million of outflows the previous week.

Winterstein's firm advises buy-side and sell-side clients on vetting vendors, looking at synergies between different technologies and advising on their product set.

Munis experienced some firmness Tuesday, but "whether or not that's going to be for more than a nanosecond remains to be seen," said Jeff Lipton, managing director of credit research at Oppenheimer Inc.

The top bond counsel firms combined for a total of $265.112 billion in 5,327 transactions during the first three quarters of 2023, down from the $291.768 billion in 6,400 deals over the same period in 2022.

An elevated new-issue market is on the horizon with $14.87 billion, per The Bond Buyer's 30-day visible supply.

The new-issue muni calendar is estimated at $8.522 billion next week with $6.075 billion of negotiated deals on tap and $2.446 billion on the competitive calendar, according to Ipreo and The Bond Buyer.

LSEG Lipper data Thursday showed $297 million of outflows from municipal bond mutual funds for the week ending Wednesday after $780.1 million of outflows the week prior.

Municipal mutual fund losses continued last week as the Investment Company Institute reporting investors pulled $2.645 billion from the funds in the week ending Oct. 11. ETFs see more inflows, though.

Munis are now following along with broader Treasury market weakness, and "at the same time are also attempting to manage some of the healthiest issuance that we've seen this year," said Morgan Stanley's Matthew Gastall.

The top two municipal bond insurers wrapped $22.814 billion in the first three quarters of 2023, a slight dip of 0.5% from the $22.929 billion of deals done over the same period in 2022, according to Refinitiv data.

"The combination of higher yields and this week's heavier new-issue calendar will attract attention from income-focused individual investors as well as from institutional investors who are underweight munis," said CreditSights strategists Pat Luby and Sam Berzok.