Gary Siegel

Bullard addresses coronavirus and the economy, University of Michigan consumer expectations drop.

The Conference Board's Employment Trends Index (ETI) gained to 97.57 in October from 96.33 in September, but remains 11.1% lower than a year ago, the group announced Monday.

The October employment report was stronger than predicted, with a 638,000 rise in nonfarm payrolls and a full percentage point decline in the unemployment rate, suggesting the economy continues to improve despite the rise in the number of COVID-19 cases.

Lynne Funk and Gary Siegel discuss how the election results will affect the municipal market, how the Fed moves forward and some winners and losers with bond ballot measure results and muni advocates who held onto their seats in Congress. (21 minutes).

As is usually the case, the largest bond deals appear headed for victory, although this year's tally seems to be slower than normal, given the COVID-19 pandemic.

No one expects any change to the fed funds rate target when the Federal Open Market Committee meets on Wednesday and Thursday, but that doesn’t mean there’s nothing to watch for.

Personal income increased 0.9% in September after a 2.5% decline in August, the Commerce Department reported Friday, while personal consumption grew 1.2% after a 0.7% gain in August.

The economic news was mixed again Monday, with home sales unexpectedly dipping, while two reads of manufacturing showed expansion continued, but one suggested a slower rate of growth.

Uncertainty has been the code word since March — about the length of the pandemic, about the election, and many other issues. The markets hate uncertainty.

Executive Director, Morgan Stanley

The economic news Friday was mostly positive, with consumers spending on clothes, cars and eating out, while manufacturing continues to suffer.

Although short-term volatility is certain, experts consider whether the long-term outlook would change depending on the winners.

The federal funds rate target should remain at the zero lower bound until inflation reaches 2% and remains headed higher, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans said Monday.

Payrolls were added and the unemployment rate fell, but some observers saw negatives in the September employment report.

While the Fed has written off negative interest rates as a last resort, without stimulus, consideration may be nearer.

A “fragile” economy and his expectations for a “more gradual” than forecast recovery mean “fiscal- and monetary-policy stimulus are essential,” Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren said Wednesday.

Consumers’ view of the economy was less pessimistic in August, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Survey of Consumer Expectations.

The dot plot will be the star of the meeting, but the coronavirus and the elections will be part of the discussion, economists say.

Recent inflation data suggests an expected pickup in inflation, but economists see a different picture.

While the worst of the predictions failed to materialize — unemployment never hit the levels expected and most numbers started improving after a month or two — a second wave of the virus could take another bite out of the economy.