Wholesale sales continue to outpace inventory gains

WASHINGTON — The value of wholesale inventories rose 0.3% in September, unrevised from the 0.3% gain estimated in the advance estimate, while wholesale sales rose 1.3%, data released Thursday by the U.S. Commerce Department showed.

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With the addition of the 0.3% gain in wholesale inventories reported Thursday, an MNI calculation expects a flat reading for business inventories when it is released, assuming no revision to the 1.0% decline reported for retail inventories in the advance estimate. Released Friday, Factory inventories were reported up 0.7% for September.

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The 1.3% increase for wholesale sales reported Thursday, comes in addition to a 1.7% increase for retail trade sales from last month's advanced sales release and a moderate 0.8% increase for factory shipments reported November 3, adding up to a 1.2% increase for business sales barring a large revision to retail trade sales.

With the rise in September wholesale inventories, but the larger increase in wholesale sales, the inventory/sales ratio fell to 1.27 from 1.28 in August, hitting its lowest since December 2014. The ratio was still below the 1.32 mark in September 2016, as sales have increased faster than inventories over the last year.

Excluding the auto category, wholesale inventories would have been up 0.4% in September after a 0.7% increase in the previous month, an MNI calculation showed. Sales would have been up 1.3% in September if auto sales were excluded. This followed a 1.7% gain in August, with the year-over-year being up 8.2%.

The value of durable inventories rose by 0.3% in the month, though auto inventories fell by 0.3%. The remaining durables components were mainly positive, with the exception of autos, professional equipment, and computer equipment. The biggest gains were in electrical (+1.0%) and the miscellaneous durable category (+2.5%).

Nondurables inventories were up 0.4% in September. The biggest gains were seen in petroleum, which was up 3.0%, paper up 1.1%, and drugs up 1.0%. Other components were mixed, with farm products, alcohol, and miscellaneous nondurables posting a negative.

Durables goods sales were up 0.7% in the month, with auto sales up 0.7%. The remaining components were mixed, with gains in everything except furniture, professional equipment, and computer equipment.

Nondurable goods sales were up 1.8% in September after a 1.6% gain in August. Petroleum sales were up 12.6% after a smaller, but still strong 8.3% increase in August. The other component movements all saw declines except for chemicals which saw a 1.7% gain.


Market News International is a real-time global news service for fixed-income and foreign exchange market professionals. See www.marketnews.com.
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