Final Q3 2017 GDP slips, but growth still solid

WASHINGTON — Third quarter GDP growth was revised down to a 3.2% annual rate from the 3.3% pace in the second estimate, compared to no revision expected, but not altering the picture of strong growth in most recent two quarters, data released Thursday by the Bureau of Economic Analysis showed.

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Overall, the data suggest that economic growth remained solid, with gains over 3.0% in each of the last two quarters after the usual lull in the first quarter. GDP appears on track to improve in 2017 from the 1.8% rise in 2016, barring a very soft reading in the fourth quarter.

Third quarter Gross Domestic Income revised down sharply to a 2.0% gain from the 2.5% increase in the first estimate for the quarter. This puts the GDP/GDI average at a 2.6% gain for the third quarter, smaller than the 2.9% increase originally posted for the quarter.

Both GDI and the GDP/GDI average were below their pace in the second quarter, putting them at odds with the small acceleration that GDP saw from the second quarter.

Within consumption, which is now reported up 2.2% for the quarter compared with the 2.3% second estimate, there was a strong downward revision to services spending that offset an upward revision to goods spending.

Inventory investment was revised down to a $38.5 billion gain for the quarter from $39.0 billion in the second estimate. The net export gap now stands at $597.5 billion, wider than $594.4 billion in the second estimate.

Government spending now stands up 0.7% in third estimate after rising 0.4% in the second estimate, with the upward adjustment found in the state and local category.

Residential fixed investment was revised up to 4.7% rate of decline from the 5.1% rate of decline in the second estimate.

Nonresidential fixed investment was unrevised at a 4.7% pace of growth, with downward adjustments to structures and intellectual property offset by a sharp upward adjustment to equipment.

As a result of the mix of revisions, real final sales were revised down slightly to a 2.4% gain from the 2.5% increase in the second estimate.

The key price measures were little altered. The chain price index was unrevised at a 2.1% gain, remaining well ahead of the 1.0% increase in the second quarter.

The closely watched core PCE price index was revised down slightly to a 1.3% pace from the 1.4% gain in the second estimate. However, the year/year rate for the measure was unrevised at 1.4%, down slightly from 1.5% in the second quarter.


Market News International is a real-time global news service for fixed-income and foreign exchange market professionals. See www.marketnews.com.
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