WASHINGTON - Thirty states' tax receipts, adjusted for inflation, had not fully rebounded from the Great Recession more than five years after its end, according to an analysis released by a nonprofit organization on Monday.
The Pew Charitable Trusts' data on 50 states' quarterly tax revenues showed that while, overall, states collected 2.5% more tax revenue in the third quarter of 2014 than they had midway through the recession, the state-by-state picture was more mixed.
The 2.5% gain for the 50 states was from the peak of $214.64 billion in total tax revenues during the third quarter of 2008.
But "the 50-state total masks how unevenly revenue is recovering state by state," Pew said in the analysis.
In the third quarter of last year, 30 states were still collecting less tax revenue in real terms than at their individual peaks before or after the recession. In 11 of those states, tax revenue was down 10% or more from those peaks, according to the data.
Pew said that the total 50-state tax revenue was above its 2008 high mark, even though most states had below-peak receipts - mostly because of increases in the tax collections of three states with large tax bases - California, up 7.0%, Illinois, up 22.5% and Texas, up 13.0%.
"If those states were excluded, overall tax revenue would fall short of its 2008 level," Pew said in its analysis.
Alaska was the furthest from its peak, down 75.1% from its peak revenues of almost $2.73 billion in the third quarter of 2008. This was the lowest point since a short-lived windfall in 2008, when a new state oil tax coincided with record-high crude prices, Pew said. The state's revenue has declined for the past seven quarters as oil production waned, even before the recent drop in crude prices.
Wyoming was down 23.9% from its peak of $765.89 million of revenues in the first quarter of 2009 and Florida was down 17.9% from its peak of almost $11.59 billion in the second quarter of 2006. Florida is one of several states that have trimmed its taxes or fees since the recession, Pew said.
North Dakota led all states in its revenue gain of 125.9% from its peak of $711.38 million in the fourth quarter of 2008. The gain is attributed to an oil boom that boosted tax revenue, Pew said. Despite the crop in crude prices, its production has increased.
The next biggest rebounds were Illinois, up 22.5% from its peak of $8.25 billion in the second quarter of 2008 and Minnesota, up 17.0% from its peak of almost $5.06 billion in the same quarter. Tax increases imposed by both states after the recession contributed to their revenue growth, though Illinois' income tax hike ended at the close of 2014, according to the analysis.
Without adjusting for inflation, which takes into account changes in the prices of goods and services, the total 50-state tax revenue would be 12.0% above peak, and tax collections would have recovered in 38 states as of the third quarter of last year, the nonprofit group said.
"Looking ahead, tax revenue is expected to continue growing," Pew said.
