New York City could bring in $1 billion more tax revenue in fiscal 2015 and 2016 and nearly $3.5 billion more in the out years of its four-year financial plan, according to an analysis by city Comptroller Scott Stringer.
The higher projected revenue produces funds in those fiscal years nearly enough to close the remaining out-year budget gaps through 2019, Stringer told reporters at a Tuesday press briefing in lower Manhattan.
"New York City has benefited from a solid economic recovery, but the possibility of a downturn can never be discounted," said Stringer. "To thrive as a city, we must be able to invest in the future and maintain fiscal discipline."
Stringer, in his second year as comptroller, called Mayor Bill de Blasio's preliminary $77.7 billion budget for fiscal 2016 "measured," with significant commitments to housing, homelessness and public safety. "But even in good times, we must always be laser-focused on getting the most out of government," he added.
The 51-member City Council must approve the budget by June 30.
Stringer's latest report includes an analysis of capital commitments, higher revenue projections and a new comparison of pension and salary cost trends, which he called the first of its kind. He found that a decrease in the rate of growth of pension contributions since fiscal 2013 effectively offsets more than half of the increased costs of wage and salaries after the recent negotiated labor settlements.
De Blasio on Monday announced a tentative agreement with a committee of healthcare interns and residents. His administration since taking office in January 2014 has reached contract agreements with nearly 75% of the city workforce that had previously been working under expired contracts.
From fiscal 2009 through 2013, according to Stringer, the average growth of salary costs was $120 million compared with $447 million for pensions. However, he added, from fiscal 2013 through 2019, salaries are projected to rise by $867 million annually while pension costs are projected to rise by $67 million per year. Stringer called it an inverse pattern of fiscal 2009 to 2013.
Stringer also unveiled a report and searchable online database that illustrates actual capital commitments compared with planned capital commitments at 25 city agencies, spanning 40 project types and encompassing more than 1,600 budget lines.
The analysis found that in fiscal 2014, only 52% of planned commitments were achieved, the second-lowest rate in 10 years. Since fiscal 2005, the city has achieved an average of 60% of its planned capital commitments. The sanitation department, according to the report, achieved 89% of commitments it made in 2014 while the Parks Department achieved less than a quarter.
"This report advances our ongoing efforts to provide greater transparency into how New York City invests in its infrastructure," said Stringer. "The more we know, the better we can manage our resources and maximize value for taxpayers."
Stringer also said that in four of the last five years, the city's economy has grown faster than the nation's, boosted by technology, advertising, media and information companies, which have increased their share of national employment. Because wage growth has been flat, however, the average city worker now makes less than before the recession.
The city, he said, continues to get less of its budget supported by state and federal revenue. Over the past 10 years, city expenditures, adjusted for prior year resources, rose at an average annual rate of 4.7%. During that same period, state and federal revenue in the City's budget grew by 2.5 percent annually.
Had federal revenue in New York City's budget had remained at long-term historical levels, he said, the city would have received an additional cumulative $2 billion between fiscal 2009 and 2014. During those years had state revenue in the city's budget remained at its historical average, the city would have received an additional $7.7 billion in funds.
Fitch Ratings and Standard & Poor's rate New York City bonds AA. Moody's Investors Service rates them Aa2.
