Securitization

The Federal Reserve will be more cautious and slow rate cuts going forward, according to minutes of the December Federal Open Market Committee meeting, released Wednesday.

"Further Treasury rate volatility or distractions from more favorable alternatives could at the very least moderate money invested into the municipal bond market," DWS strategists said. However, "these dynamics could create periods of opportunity to buy tax-exempt bonds at attractive yields in 2025."

"These opportunities will surface periodically throughout the year against heavy supply and the increasingly uncertain path for the Fed, evolving fiscal policy, and volatile Treasury market backdrop," said J.P. Morgan strategists.

Heavy redemptions and coupon payments this month should help "stabilize" the market, said Barclays strategist Mikhail Foux.

Investors pulled more from municipal bond mutual funds in the final reporting week of 2024, but high-yield reverted to inflows to close out the year, adding to the sector's outperformance overall.

While municipals have outperformed USTs on the whole in 2024, they will close December with losses. How taxables perform in early 2025 coupled with macroeconomic and Washington policy uncertainty have municipal market participants on edge for what lies ahead.

Both IG and HY indices will likely end this year richer versus USTs and their benchmarks, "leaving very little cushion to absorb rate volatility," said Barclays strategist Mikhail Foux.

While Friday's muni session was muted, the damage of a volatile UST market, paired with low new-issue supply and year-end positioning, has weighed on the asset class in December.

High-yield funds saw outflows of $413.6 million compared to the previous week's outflows of $71 million.

In the remaining days of this year, "taxable rates continue to be pressured but munis are finding a stable, even supportive, bidside," said Kim Olsan, a senior fixed income portfolio manager at NewSquare Capital.

Munis "continued their slide" last week as yields rose an average of 23 basis points across the curve as the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell signaled the Fed will take a "more cautious approach" on interest rate cuts next year, said Jason Wong, vice president of municipals at AmeriVet Securities.

Municipals are seeing losses of 1.82% in December, which has dragged down overall gains to just 0.68% for 2024, per the Bloomberg Municipal Index.

"Munis are grappling with a storm of uncertainty," said James Pruskowski, chief investment officer at 16Rock Asset Management.

As the market prepares for 2025, there's a lot of uncertainty around what the new administration will mean for the macroeconomic environment and interest rates, the latter of which may be impacted by policy around the deficit, said Steve Shutz, portfolio manager and director of tax-exempt fixed income at Brown Advisory.

The NFMA has floated best disclosure practices for public power agencies that ask for more data on climate and resiliency goals.

With investors now anticipating Wednesday's expected rate cut may be the last one for a while, "an overall bullish paradigm has been seriously weakened," noted Matt Fabian, a partner at Municipal Market Analytics, Inc.

As investors start shutting down for the year, there may be some mixed sessions ahead "especially for any accounts that find themselves as forced sellers," Birch Creek Capital said.

Supply falls ahead of the final Federal Open Market Committee meeting of 2024 and the holidays but issuance still breaks records. The lighter calendar should provide support for the secondary market in the final weeks of the year.

Muni mutual funds saw outflows after 23 weeks of inflows as LSEG Lipper reported investors pulled $316.2 million for the week ending Dec. 11. High-yield municipal bond funds, though, saw inflows of $192.3 million.

Municipal investors are more focused on the final new-issues coming down the pike and repositioning books as 2024 heads to a close. ICI reported another week of inflows into municipal bond mutual funds.