Secondary bond market

Municipal yields rose up to 10 basis points on the short end, playing catch up to the volatility of Treasuries' moves on Thursday. Rising UST rates will inevitably be more significant for munis until they settle into more stable levels.

Refinitiv Lipper reported the first inflows into municipal bond mutual funds at $216 million after three weeks of large outflows while high-yield saw small outflows. Exchange-traded funds reported $755 million of inflows.

Markets were somewhat comforted by Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic’s comments suggesting the Fed will not be as aggressive as the markets suspect.

The state of Washington sold $743 million of general obligation bonds in the competitive market at similar spreads to its November sale while some issuers have moved to the day-to-day calendar.

Washington will bring $742 million of general obligation bonds in competitive sales Tuesday, providing guidance for triple-A benchmark yields.

Municipal to UST ratios hit highs earlier in the week, creating entry points for buyers to return to the market even as ratios fell on the week. The primary will see a smaller calendar at $5.4 billion.

Municipals were stronger again on the day, though, and new-issues were repriced to lower yields.

Buyers appeared to return to the market the past two sessions after the January correction moved yields and ratios higher. Secondary trading was up again on Wednesday and new deals were well-received.

Triple-A benchmark curves were bumped two to five basis points outside of five years as markets calmed to start February.

Market volatility has led to munis seeing the worst performance to start the year since 2018 and the biggest monthly losses since March 2020.

Short-end muni yields have risen more than 30 basis points on some triple-A scales over the past five trading sessions.

Returns are deep in the red with the Bloomberg Municipal Index at negative 1.85%, while high-yield sits at negative 1.81%.

The statement offered no surprises, but Fed Chair jerome Powell's refusal to denounce more hawkish scenarios hurt market sentiment.

Triple-A benchmarks were cut two to six basis points across the curve with the largest moves concentrated again on bonds inside 10 years, underperforming Treasuries once again.

Munis are expected to underperform for another few weeks as markets remain volatile and investors reevaluate allocations.

The combination of steady supply, heavy secondary selling and inconsistent demand have moved yields to their highest levels since May 2020.

Refinitiv Lipper reported $238.926 million of outflows, but $182.035 million of inflows to high-yield, reversing last week's outflows. New-issues faced concessions.

The Investment Company Institute reported a large drop of inflows into municipal bond mutual funds at $142 million in the week ending Jan. 12, down from $1.413 billion in the previous week.

The 2-, 5- and 10-year UST is higher than before the pandemic began as investors factor in a rate hike as soon as March.

The largest deal of the week comes from the New York City Transitional Finance Authority with $950 million of exempts and $250 million of taxables.