Primary bond market

"While valuations are still historically tight, the extra demand through the summer should help support the muni market in the coming weeks," Birch Creek strategists said.

In a week that culminated in headline-grabbing events — a presidential debate, several Supreme Court decisions, more macroeconomic data to add to Fed policy expectations — municipals closed on a quiet note and in the black for June.

Municipal bond mutual funds saw outflows as investors pulled $498 million from funds after $16 million of inflows the week prior, according to LSEG Lipper. High-yield funds still saw inflows.

June supply appears to be finishing above $45 billion, the third highest monthly total in the last 10 years, said Kim Olsan, vice president of municipal bond trading at FHN Financial.

In 2024, variable rate (short put) issuance is up 6.4% increase year-over-year, LSEG data shows. Few expect issuance to return pre-financial crisis levels.

Convention centers in Chicago, Cincinnati and St. Louis are being upgraded, although cost increases after the pandemic added challenges to some financings.

Demand for the increased supply has been "solid" if nearly largely reliant on income-oriented small lot buyers, noted Municipal Market Analytics, Inc. Partner Matt Fabian. Through last week, buyers continued to be separately managed account/retail in size.

Finance officials for the city decided to be the first municipal issuer to use the distributed ledger technology for a $10 million deal, banking on cost savings, better liquidity and more access for retail investors to their bonds. Mayor Tom Koch, CFO Eric Mason and Strategic Asset Manager Rick Coscia say it should be the first of many deals for the industry.

Total volume currently stands at $224.13 billion, up 38.5% from $161.848 billion at this time last year. As the end of the first half approaches, several firms are revisiting their supply projections for the year, given the growth so far this year.

With the "pretty good run" month-to-date, it would not be unexpected to see "the market take a breather, and with a large calendar this coming week, it may again move sideways," said AllianceBernstein strategists in a weekly report.

"It is hard to be overly excited about current valuations of tax-exempts relative to Treasuries; however, at tax-adjusted yields (using individual tax brackets), munis look quite attractive compared with other asset classes," noted Barclays PLC.

Municipal bond mutual funds saw small inflows as investors added $16.4 million to the funds after $154.4 million of inflows the week prior, according to LSEG Lipper.

The state's new law requires companies like investment banks to provide written verification of their positions, part of a trend among similar bills aimed at preventing Wall Street banks from lying about their positions, said a firearms industry lobbyist.

Issuance this year is "well on its way" to $450 billion, mostly from the tax-exempt supply of new money projects, said Matt Fabian, a partner at Municipal Market Analytics.

Despite some slight weakness Monday, munis continued an "impressive start to June," with yields falling 10 to 13 basis points last week, Birch Creek strategists said.

According to the board, the addition is an important means to enhance market transparency and is in line with its FY24 priority to expand the EMMA platform.

The new-issue calendar is led by the New York Transportation Development Corp. with $1.5 billion of green AMT special facilities revenue bonds for the John F. Kennedy International Airport New Terminal One project,

"Even after this week's rally, absolute yields look attractive in the context of the trading range over the past three years, May's underperformance versus taxable fixed-income, and our longer-term projections for lower rates this year," J.P. Morgan strategists said.

"It is important to remember that as long as the Fed's next move is to lower policy rates, bonds will do well," said Jack McIntyre, portfolio manager at Brandywine Global. "The employment market is in better balance, which is very important for the Fed — even more than inflation."

Driven by ongoing capital expenditure funding and current refunding opportunities, airport issuance is estimated at $21 billion in 2024, with a slew of from June through September and more planned in December, according to Ramirez.