Primary bond market

Yields rose significantly for the fourth time this week as the aftereffects of President Donald Trump's tariffs continue to plague the financial markets.

"The discussion about policies regarding tariffs will drive performance in bonds over the next three to six months," said Michael Pietronico, CEO of Miller Tabak Asset Management.

Triple-A muni yields plummeted up to 50 basis points Thursday in a dramatic reversal from the week's earlier collapse. Speaking live at The Bond Buyer's Texas Public Finance event, market leaders painted a picture of extreme volatility, impaired liquidity, and an uncertain path forward.

"The equity market is looking at this more positively, but bonds are still thinking, 'Well, these tariffs still have to be resolved,'" said Kim Olsan, a senior fixed income portfolio manager at NewSquare Capital.

Municipal AAA yield curves were cut up to another 42 basis points, depending on the curve, as of noon, pushing yields to multi-year highs and long-end muni to UST ratios above 100%. Muni yields have risen up to nearly 100 basis points in spots since the bond market rout began.

A $125 million bond sale by the Indianapolis Local Public Improvement Bond Bank for Indianapolis public transit operator IndyGo is on day-to-day status.

Weakness in the muni market has been partly amplified by ETF selling; high-grade yields rose more than 60 basis points on parts of the curve over two sessions.

A new S&P upgrade and one last year from Moody's burnish the Colorado Statewide Bridge and Tunnel Enterprise ahead of a $212 million revenue bond deal.

"The changing momentum on what the market is looking for on tariffs and the volatility in the equity market is spilling over into the Treasury market, and munis can only fight the Treasury market for so long," said Pat Luby, head of municipal strategy at CreditSights.

"In the aftermath of this week's Treasury yield move lower, MMD-UST ratios have reached short-term highs," Barclays strategists said.

"With the initial announcement proving to be more aggressive than expected, the market responded overwhelmingly negatively," said Principal Asset's Seema Shah.

Parity Plus gives muni issuers increased transparency and resources to determine market demand prior to a bond sale.

Details surrounding the tariffs — which could be anything from reciprocal tariffs to finally implementing delayed tariffs on Canada and Mexico and on pharmaceuticals — have remained unclear, but uncertainty has plagued the market for weeks.

Triple-A yields have fallen as much as 12 basis points over the past three trading sessions.

New York Power Authority CFO Adam Barsky and Battery Park City Authority CFO Pamela Frederick join The Bond Buyer's Lynne Funk to unpack the far-reaching consequences of eliminating, reducing, or limiting the federal tax exemption for municipal bonds.

The asset class extended its selloff last week as concerns regarding the tax-exempt status of munis continued to mount, combined with a heavy new-issue calendar and tax season selling by investors, said Jason Wong, vice president of municipals at AmeriVet Securities.

The Maine Turnpike Authority is navigating a rocky road back to the market. 

Notable deals include a $600 million refunding deal by the New York City Municipal Water Authority and almost $400 million from Rochester, Minnesota.

"It seems like hitting last year's volumes should be within the strike zone for the marketplace," said Kyle Javes, a managing director and head of municipal fixed income at Piper Sandler.

Issuance for the week of March 31 is at $9.29 billion, with $8.011 billion of negotiated deals and $1.28 billion of competitive deals on tap.