Primary bond market

Munis are "under pressure as elevated primary supply collides with lackluster seasonal reinvestment flows, leaving dealers heavy and buyers selective," said James Pruskowski, an investor and market strategist.

As the market continues to contend with the surge in issuance, investors still have a significant amount of cash that can be put to work, said Jeremy Holtz, a portfolio manager at Income Research + Management.

As always, economists had disparate interpretations of the consumer price index, with none expecting a July rate cut. And tariff questions remain unanswered.

"The muni market seemed to ignore Treasuries [last] week, marching to its own beat," said Birch Creek strategists.

New York issuers lead a $9 billion slate.

The comprehensive federal tax bill President Trump signed July 4 is credit negative for universities, Moody's Ratings said.

The market has seen some "weirdness" in the muni curve, said Craig Brandon, co-head of muni investments at Morgan Stanley Investment Management.

"Municipal outperformance against taxable sectors has moved short-term ratios on or through their 252-day moving averages, while intermediate and long maturities are holding at or above average ranges," said Kim Olsan, senior fixed income portfolio manager at NewSquare Capital.

Michigan's Great Lakes Water Authority went to market in June with roughly a billion dollars of bonds, part of a complex transaction that included a tender.

"Market volatility is likely to pick up, but the latest development does not constitute an escalation in the trade war," according to UBS strategists.

Markets are "tilting to a risk-off posture as participants brace for the chance of Trump tariff-sparked turbulence in the coming hours and days," said José Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers.

The Alpine School District deal will finance school buildings in a part of the district that will be split off into a separate entity in July 2027.

UST yields rose across the curve in response to the employment report with the two-year rising nearly 10 basis points while municipals largely ignored the moves and ratios fell as a result.

The growth of the muni market comes as issuance surges, with the first half of the year seeing $280.64 billion of supply, up 14.3% year-over-year, according to LSEG.

The deal is the second large bond issued from the Public Energy Authority of Kentucky this year.

MFS Investment Management predicts "compelling opportunities for muni investors" in the second half of the year.

Up to $505 million of bonds could be issued.

"We are entering a period during the summer months in which demand historically outweighs very limited supply, resulting in a supportive performance environment but more limited investment opportunities," said J. Robert Lind of Lind Capital Partners.

Issuance this year has been "relentless" since the start of the year, while historically the "new-issue machine" takes a while to get rolling, said Scott Diamond, co-head of AM Municipal Fixed Income at Goldman Sachs.

This week has the July 4th holiday, with only $2.5 billion on tap in the primary bond market, though investors have tens of billions in reinvestment cash.