Primary bond market

The new-issue calendar falls to an estimated $1.154 billion, with $939.1 million negotiated deals on tap and $214.8 million of competitives.

The long-awaited jobs report paints a mixed picture for market participants: nonfarm payrolls increased by a greater-than-expected119,000 in September, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%.

Flows into high-yield muni mutual funds had slowed over the past several weeks, and the past two weeks have seen outflows.

The market is in a bit of a lull right now as it braces for a deluge of economic data, which could spark volatility, said Jeff Timlin, a partner at Sage Advisory.

The muni market has "demonstrated more conviction with steady demand and appealing relative yields weighing on the long-end while shifting dynamics on the short-end have led to municipals selling-off," said Tim Iltz, fixed income credit and market analyst at HJ Sims.

Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson is seeking City Council approval of $1.8 billion in new money general obligation bonds and $2 billion in refunding authority.

The "data dumps" over the next several weeks could lead to market volatility, said Abdulla Begai, director and fixed income portfolio management at A&M Private Wealth Partners.

Issuance year-to-date is at $505.245, just shy of 2024's record of $507.585 billion, with $11.109 billion of supply on the calendar for the week of Nov. 17.

For munis, the end of the shutdown helps steady the backdrop, said James Pruskowski, an investor and market strategist.

The Florida county is in the midst of executing a $9 billion capital improvement plan.

"Continuing yield stability ... suggests a comfortable market that, even with the shutdown apparently close to ending, may resist/lag potential price/yield changes in taxables," said Matt Fabian, president of Municipal Market Analytics.

The airport's sprawling capital improvement program is expected to total $11.5 billion over the next decade, $9 billion of it bond funded.

Some of the most active sectors have been education (+29%), GOs (+17%) and healthcare (+17%), said Kim Olsan, senior fixed income portfolio manager at NewSquare Capital.

Assured Guaranty commented on Brightline and PREPA during its third-quarter earnings call, on which the company reported a 46% increase in third quarter gross par written year over year, to $7.85 billion from $5.38 billion.

The muni market may see additional volatility due to "uncertainties related to the future of tariffs and stronger inflation prints," said Barclays strategists led by Mikhail Foux.

Investors added $1.266 billion to municipal bond mutual funds in the week ended Wednesday, following $744.3 million of inflows the prior week, according to LSEG Lipper data.

While the market navigates a surge in supply, another focus area has become elections and their potential to shift market demand, as several regional election results will likely garner greater attention over the next few months, said Kim Olsan, senior fixed income portfolio manager at NewSquare Capital.

Tuesday saw a good slate of deals, including the acceleration of Ohio's $508.865 million of GOs and Austin's $419.035 million of electric utility system revenue refunding bonds.

"Normalized supply, a supportive rate environment and favorable technicals propelled the municipal market to the best October performance [in decades]," said Robert J. Lind.